Volatility surprisingly lower

With the main indexes closing higher by around 0.75/1.0%, the VIX closed 4.5% lower @ 17.58. Considering the uncertainty of the election, and the many lurking econ-time bombs out there - not least the fiscal cliff, it is remarkable that the VIX remains <20.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

If you take a slightly broader perspective, the VIX remains in a slow, but steady uptrend since the QE index highs in mid-September. Yet, its taken almost 7 weeks to crawl from the low 13s to 17. That is a very marginal increase, and as I keep noting, until the VIX starts closing >20, this really is a very low..and unreliable VIX.

Near term target remains 20/21, but...that target can be scrubbed if we get a closing sp>1445/50 in the next few days. We'll certainly know...soon enough.

more later

Closing Brief

A very slight rollover this afternoon, but the broad market closed with gains of around 0.75-1%. All things considered, another victory for the bull maniacs who think everything will be fixed once a new man takes command of the American empire.  Clearly, GDP is about to soar from tomorrow morning onward.


Dow'60min

Sp'60min

Summary

Another day for the bulls to have a good laugh at, not least the nonsense that was the sudden ramp at 11.30am..all based on the usual rumours, lies, and utter delusion.

The hourly charts are certainly at the high end, in terms of the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, but its election time, and almost anything could happen at the Wednesday open.

As has been the case since the QE spike highs of mid September...bears have to break the key cycle low of sp'1397.

more later

3pm - closing hour breakout?

With one trading hour left, the market is still holding onto effectively all of the gains. A close >1436 would be extremely bullish. Right now, bears can only 'hope' for something <1427. Despite the uncertainty of the election, VIX is 6% lower, and showing no sign of levelling out.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

A rough day in bear land, there can't be many left to be short-stopped out now.

Bulls are starting to get more confident about a post election super ramp into year end, sp'1500/50 is within their sights.

Weekly/monthly charts are still suggesting weakness, although that signal will vapourise if we get a few closes >1440/50.

A long night ahead, and as many realise, there may be no clear result for some days..even weeks.
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More after the close.