Volatility closes a touch lower

The VIX closed well above its morning lows - as the main indexes fails to hold most of their opening gains, but still closed around 1% to settle @ 18.12


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

A somewhat quiet day in VIX land. The closing decline was marginal, and generally speaking, we remain in a near term up trend.

It will be VERY important for the VIX to hold >18 tomorrow, and the bears should preferably seek an opening spike into the mid 19s.

From a MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle perspective, the daily cycle is looking toppy, but the hourly cycle offers major upside for Friday, perhaps hitting 20/21.

Best guess remains that there is at least one further major wave lower in the indexes, with the VIX breaking the big 20 level.

More later

Closing Brief

A relatively quiet afternoon after the morning gains that once again failed to hold. A very slight rally into the close, probably a combo' of short covering and deluded maniacs buying AAPL/AMZN.


Dow'60min

Sp'60min

Summary

A somewhat dull closing hour..with Mr Market now waiting for earnings from AAPL and AMZN. Both will have some significant influence on tomorrow's trading session.

The VIX did manage a marginally higher close, and the hourly VIX cycle offers 'major upside' for Friday to at least 20/21, which would probably equate to sp'1390s.

back later.

3pm update - closing hour battle

With one hour to go, the market is only marginally higher. If the bulls somehow pull a last hour ramp, it would really taint the current 5 day decline. The bears need to hold the line here, and close the main indexes at least flat, preferably a touch red.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

For those seeking much lower levels - as still suggested by the weekly charts, we could really do with seeing some weakness into the close.

Bears should be seeking at least a marginally lower close, <1406, with VIX 18.50>

*watch AAPL and AMZN at the close...earnings are due.

More after the close