Thursday, 25 October 2012

Volatility closes a touch lower

The VIX closed well above its morning lows - as the main indexes fails to hold most of their opening gains, but still closed around 1% to settle @ 18.12


VIX'60min



VIX'daily


Summary

A somewhat quiet day in VIX land. The closing decline was marginal, and generally speaking, we remain in a near term up trend.

It will be VERY important for the VIX to hold >18 tomorrow, and the bears should preferably seek an opening spike into the mid 19s.

From a MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle perspective, the daily cycle is looking toppy, but the hourly cycle offers major upside for Friday, perhaps hitting 20/21.

Best guess remains that there is at least one further major wave lower in the indexes, with the VIX breaking the big 20 level.

More later