Volatility slips lower

Whislt the main indexes were lower for much of the day, the VIX was surprising even more muted than normal. At best, the VIX was up 1% or so, but it closed down 3.7% @ 15.71. Considering its October, a VIX in the mid teens remains remarkable.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

The last hour of trading saw the VIX get somewhat hammered lower.We're still in what is a pretty broad up trend/wedge, but its not a very strong one, and we could easily fail tomorrow, not least if the market again gaps higher.

If the SP' breaks into the 1460s, then VIX will doubtless be 13s again, and sp'1500s would probably equate to around VIX 11/10, perhaps even 9.

It really is a situation of 'if no upset, then market will see relentless low-volume melt up'.

For the moment, Mr Market sees no imminent upset. Everything is on track for sp'1600 (at current trend rate) by year end. Today's style of VIX close was exactly the sort of thing that should make the permabulls very pleased.

Closing Brief

Arguably, a disappointing end to the day for the bears. It took most of the day to break below sp'1440, only for it to last barely an hour. With the VIX closing red, yeah, it was disappointing indeed.


IWM'60min

SP'60min, H/S

Trans

Summary

Well that wasn't much good of a day. From the bigger daily chart though (posted later), we just had day'5 of what is a bear flag.

Downside target remains 1420/15. The 50 day rising MA will likely pose strong resistance to any drop, assuming we get one later this week.

More later

3pm update - 1440 break through

Bears achieve a minor break through the key sp'1440 level. So far though, downside momentum is very limited. There just isn't much to kick it any lower right now.


sp'60min - H/S

Summary

A close of 1435/33 is certainly viable, lets see if the bears can achieve a little victory to close the day.




VIX is +1%, but that is of course very marginal, only a close +4/6% would merit a little attention.

More after the close