Tuesday, 2 October 2012

Volatility slips lower

Whislt the main indexes were lower for much of the day, the VIX was surprising even more muted than normal. At best, the VIX was up 1% or so, but it closed down 3.7% @ 15.71. Considering its October, a VIX in the mid teens remains remarkable.




The last hour of trading saw the VIX get somewhat hammered lower.We're still in what is a pretty broad up trend/wedge, but its not a very strong one, and we could easily fail tomorrow, not least if the market again gaps higher.

If the SP' breaks into the 1460s, then VIX will doubtless be 13s again, and sp'1500s would probably equate to around VIX 11/10, perhaps even 9.

It really is a situation of 'if no upset, then market will see relentless low-volume melt up'.

For the moment, Mr Market sees no imminent upset. Everything is on track for sp'1600 (at current trend rate) by year end. Today's style of VIX close was exactly the sort of thing that should make the permabulls very pleased.