Volatility smashed lower

With better than expected jobs data (if only the reality were true), and Mr Draghi saving the world (I'm sure he imagines it), the market above broke key resistance, and ramped hard.

Naturally, the VIX was smashed lower, closing -12%, back into the lowly mid 15s


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

With the up channel now ruined, its likely it'll take some days for this down cycle to complete. Primary target is somewhere in the low 14s.

Its important to note, that the bears sure don't want to see yet another lower low put in <13s.

The MACD cycle is clear, we'll probably trundle lower for a good 3-5 days, but it could be considerably longer, depending upon the German court and the FOMC next mid-week.

More later.

Closing Brief

The opening gains held very well for the bulls, and the large bullish pennant that has developed across the last two weeks was confirmed with today's snap higher.

Further upside is anticipated, target is sp'1445/50, probably sometime around Tue-Thursday.


IWM'60min

Dow'60min

Sp'60min

Summary

As permabear, it is often too sickening to go long, so even though I expected today's move I did not go long. However, at least I got out of the way of this freight train, and was not short. If I could see this snap higher coming -as bearish as I am, it is surprising to see so many who did not. You won't see many finer examples of a bullish pennant, with the bollinger bands super tight.

Tomorrow could open a little lower, but regardless of what the open is, I sure won't be getting involved until later next week. Re-shorting around 1445 would be a very nice level to get back on the doom train.

More across the evening.

3pm update - holding firm

Mr Market is somewhat euphoric today, there is certainly something starting to stink, not least that which is leaking from the clown finance TV networks.

Everything is fixed...right?


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Bull flag likely being set up on the hourly cycle, target is somewhere around 1445 by middle of next week.

More after the close.