Volatility a touch lower

With the main market largely unchanged today, the VIX was similarly somewhat flat, closing just over 1% lower. However, yesterdays black candle remains something of a warning that a new up cycle in equities is very viable.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

We remain in a broad up trend, as seen on both the hourly and daily cycles. Yet, that black candle really should be considered a serious warning.

Similarly, just look at the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, which is now clearly rolling over. VIX is set to drop for the next 5-7 days, baring a 'market upset'. That of course may indeed come from the ECB tomorrow, so its something to keep in mind.

As things are, I'm guessing Draghi will somehow give the algo-bots the excuse to either gap the market straight over resistance of sp'1412, or at least keep the market from breaking support @ 1397.

*from a big 'doom perspective', it could be argued that the recent up wave is minute'1 of a larger down cycle that is now underway. In that case, we're due VIX to decline in a minute'2, before a '3 allows the VIX to break into the 20s...and 30s sometime after mid-September.

More later.

Closing Brief

Another quiet day, although this no doubt due partly to everyone waiting until the ECB decision tomorrow.

VIX closed a touch lower, and still confirms the underlying strength in the indexes.


IWM'60min

Dow'60min

Sp'60min

Summary

There really isn't much to say. The Rus'2000 index remains pretty strong, with the Dow/Transports lagging the broader flat market.

We'll very likely get a major snap tomorrow. I'm guessing it will be higher.

As a permabear, I'm sitting this out.

More later.

3pm update - bullish Thursday

The closing hour, seeking a flat close, still in a trading range of 2% that has lasted almost 5 weeks.

dow' daily

Summary

Suffice to say, seeking a break higher tomorrow. Whether that is to new highs..difficult to say.

More after the close