Volatility a touch lower

With the main market largely unchanged today, the VIX was similarly somewhat flat, closing just over 1% lower. However, yesterdays black candle remains something of a warning that a new up cycle in equities is very viable.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

We remain in a broad up trend, as seen on both the hourly and daily cycles. Yet, that black candle really should be considered a serious warning.

Similarly, just look at the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, which is now clearly rolling over. VIX is set to drop for the next 5-7 days, baring a 'market upset'. That of course may indeed come from the ECB tomorrow, so its something to keep in mind.

As things are, I'm guessing Draghi will somehow give the algo-bots the excuse to either gap the market straight over resistance of sp'1412, or at least keep the market from breaking support @ 1397.

*from a big 'doom perspective', it could be argued that the recent up wave is minute'1 of a larger down cycle that is now underway. In that case, we're due VIX to decline in a minute'2, before a '3 allows the VIX to break into the 20s...and 30s sometime after mid-September.

More later.