Volatility, gains for the week

With the main indexes declining just under 1% for the week, the VIX managed a 13% increase across the week. However, 13% only gets the VIX to 15, which remains an extraordinary low level.


VIX, weekly

Summary

From a MACD (blue bar histogram) perspective, for the first time since mid May we have a tick upward on the cycle, but we're still negative momentum. At the current rate of increase, we could be positive cycle early September.

Whats clear, bears need a VIX weekly close next week at least over 18, that might at least signal the beginning of a new up cycle.

My concern remains that even if we hit hit 18/19 later next week, the appearance of the Bernanke at the Jackson hole will lead to a major rebound on Friday, and mark the start of a major new index up cycle.

So...lets see how we close next week, and if a trend on the bigger cycle has begun.

Closing Brief

Most indexes closed a little under 1% lower for the week, could be suggestive of a turn, yet the monthly trend is still very much cruising higher.

This time next week, we'll have that annoying 'Benny @ the hole' nonsense out of the way..It never seems to end..does it?

The closing hourly index charts


IWM

Dow

Sp

Summary

Very little to add, its been tiresome week of waiting. Bulls can claim 'we made a new high', whilst bears can claim 'net weekly declines'.

*I'll post a few other things later this evening, with something major on Saturday, otherwise for now....

Have a good weekend.

2pm update - its getting dull again

Market almost fully claws back yesterdays losses  After all, we can't be allowed a down week, right? No volume, no fear....the algo-bots are back into melt mode.


sp'daily5

Summary

So, what was it..already? 1426 to 1398, and now we're back to melt mode. This is utterly tiresome.

I suppose it could be argued those very few bears who exited at the open, are getting an opportunity to re-short right now. A simple stop would be 1427, or right 1415/20. Yet it is certainly not without risk.

The market will be fixated on the Bernanke next week, endless chatter on QE for September. Sigh.

*I'm not expecting anything in the latter few hours, market may as well close now.

More after the close.