Volatility, gains for the week

With the main indexes declining just under 1% for the week, the VIX managed a 13% increase across the week. However, 13% only gets the VIX to 15, which remains an extraordinary low level.


VIX, weekly

Summary

From a MACD (blue bar histogram) perspective, for the first time since mid May we have a tick upward on the cycle, but we're still negative momentum. At the current rate of increase, we could be positive cycle early September.

Whats clear, bears need a VIX weekly close next week at least over 18, that might at least signal the beginning of a new up cycle.

My concern remains that even if we hit hit 18/19 later next week, the appearance of the Bernanke at the Jackson hole will lead to a major rebound on Friday, and mark the start of a major new index up cycle.

So...lets see how we close next week, and if a trend on the bigger cycle has begun.