Volatility, trying to build a floor

The VIX actually managed a 0.25% increase by the close, even though the indexes still closed around 0.5% higher. Kinda interesting, but it could merely be noise as the VIX scraps along in the teens.


VIX'60min

VIX, daily

VIX, weekly

Summary

First, lets be clear, the index charts show ZERO sign of a turn, and worse still, some of the monthly index charts are arguably bullish now.

Yet, the bigger VIX weekly cycle is still battling to climb back higher on the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle.  At the current race of 'recovery', it now looks like the VIX might not explode higher until early September.

For the moment, until we clear the recent high of 21..and 27..the bigger targets remain mere 'crazy talk'.

A little more later.

Closing Brief

Again, a touch of weakness in the closing hour, but its still noise. The daily trend remains up.

The closing hourly index charts


IWM

Dow

Sp

Summary

From a MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle perspective, we are getting close to going negative cycle, but...its just as likely any pullback would only be 10-20pts anyway..before yet another new high is put in.

Today was yet more unrelenting pain and bemusement for the bears. With the monthly cycles as strong as they are, the big money bears will be sitting this out at least until any break under 1350.

A little more later.

3pm update - closing hour chop

Another quiet day. No rumours, no real news, no real volume.

*consumer credit data due out at 3pm.


sp'60min

Summary

A fair few people out have given up on any count since the June low of sp'1266 and I'm one of them.

For the moment, it remains a case of higher highs..and higher lows. Only with a break of 1354 can anything be said to be starting for the bears. Right now...the low 1350s look a long way down.

A little more after the close.