Volatility soars...at least for the open

With European worries back on the minds of many, the VIX soared at the open, up 26% in the opening half hour. Yet the VIX closed up just 14% in the mid 18s.

This remains a very complacent level under any situation, and further increases are expected by the end of this week, perhaps as high as 25.


VIX'60min

VIX,daily

VIX, weekly

Summary

An interesting day in the markets, with opening index declines of dow -239, but with a significant recovery as the day proceeded, to close dow-101.

From a MACD cycle perspective, the momentum cycle could still take some hours to reset. Another 2-4 hours seems very reasonable to expect.

A Tuesday early morning decline of -5% or more,  to around VIX 18.. maybe even 17.50 is briefly possible. I would expect some significant higher highs to come by late Wednesday/Thursday.

VIX primary target for August/early September remains 35/40. That seems a very viable objective for the next wave higher - and equates to at least sp'1225/00, possibly 1170/50.

More later

Closing Brief

A good day in bear land...despite the latter day ramp, but I'm fine with that.  It just makes for higher prices to re-short from tomorrow ;)

The closing hourly cycles...


IWM

Dow

Sp

Summary

With the VIX closing 14% higher...bears still had a fairly good close to the day.

I will re-short tomorrow, preferably around 1355/60....before the Tuesday close.

Much more later in the evening.

3pm update - melt up into the close?

A good day, and I will not complicate things by adding to new positions before the close.

Bulls will be seeking a close  back over the 10MA of 1352.. that won't be easy!


sp'60min

Summary

I will sit it out until tomorrow.
--
High chance of sp'1355/60 in early Tuesday trading.

More after the close :)