Volatility...lower again!

Even though the market got a little rattled after the FOMC minutes were released, the VIX still closed red. We can be clear about one thing right now...this market is still fearless.

Only with a move over VIX'20, can the bears start to look for significantly more 'interesting' things.


VIX'60min

VIX, daily

VIX, weekly

Summary

Many will be somewhat bemused at the VIX closing red, even though the indexes were pretty weak today. I'm not surprised though, there is still a bizarre lack of fear in this market, and I'm not entirely sure what might be necessary to get the VIX back into the 30s/40s - as I still expect.

As based from the weekly chart, I continue to look for a VIX explosion into the mid 30s within the next 3-5 weeks.

However, in teh immediate 3-5 day term, VIX could easily slip back into the 16s, not least if the indexes claw their way to around sp'1375/90.

Closing Brief

It appears that the floor was sp'1333.25, at least until tomorrow! Its a level that a fair few out there were noting in recent days, and its certainly at the key target zone I was looking for.

Bears failed to break and close decisively under 1330. That is not to say we can't just gap lower tomorrow morning, but...bears best chance was today..and they did not do it.

The closing hourly index cycles...


IWM

Dow

Sp

Summary

The closing hour micro-ramp was indeed something I had feared - even though we did see an initial sell off after the FOMC minutes. VIX confirmed the market recovery.

Bulls now need to seek 1350/55 tomorrow.

*as things currently stand, so long as we don't break 1330, I'm inclined to believe we see a multi-day bounce/final minor wave, up to 1375/90. I suppose that could take us into the middle of next week.

More across the evening

3pm update - glad to be a spectator

As a permabear, I'm naturally inclined to be in a permanent state of 'shortness', but no..not today. Its actually quite nice to be watching this nonsense, with no real concern for which way Mr Market finally decides to take.

The initial fall looks significant to some...but not to me. Both micro 15/60 micro-cycles are looking low, this is not a good level to be short.


sp'15min

Looks like a floor to me on the cycle.


sp'60min

Summary

A fair few out there are getting mildly hysterical at the index declines since the Fed press release, the VIX remains barely green though. That is a pretty lousy reaction, and still warns of a fearless market.

As noted, I'm sitting this out until tomorrow. There is no hurry right now to get back on the short-train.

More after the close.