Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes all crawled higher again today on next to zero trading volume. Thursday looks set to probably have a similar outcome to today, not least if the ECB cut rates.


sp, daily5, 4mth

Transports

Summary

The tranny is still lagging (a warning to the underlying market weakness?) , and is yet to break the highs of FOMC week.

The SP'500 is clearly still crawling higher, and upper target range remains 1390/1400 by late Friday. However, if the monthly jobs data rattles the market, we may well get stuck around the 1370/80 level before a new down cycle.

From a MACD cycle perspective, the daily is really getting near the point where I would expect a rollover, but we won't likely have a definitive turn until next Mon/Tuesday.

A little more later...

Volatility - a touch lower

With the indexes now closed until Thursday, the VIX closed a touch lower today. Regardless of whether its VIX'18. 16, or 14, volatility is now at very low levels.

As they say..the only way is up.


VIX, daily, rainbow

VIX, weekly

Summary

The rainbow 'elder impulse' chart is still showing NO sign of a turn, or even levelling out yet. The bears should look for the next blue candle this Friday.

Assuming the indexes do not break to new highs this month, then VIX still looks set for a jump into the 30s, and possibly 40s.

Closing Brief

Well, that was exciting right?

The closing hourly index cycles...


IWM

Dow

Sp

Summary

I was watching clown channel earlier (I must be the only UK viewer they have), the headline was 'Bet on a QE3 summer?'. They had the audacity to spend almost an entire hour touting which stocks to buy in anticipation of QE3 later this summer. 

So, lets be clear, the cheer leading clown maniacs are still hyping it up...even AFTER a 105pt rally from the sp'1266 low. It remains laughable they somehow believe the Bernanke can do QE3 at these levels.
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Meanwhile, the Rus'2000 small cap index (see IWM chart) continues to do its usual crazy nonsense. It generally tends to act like a 1.5x leveraged ETF of the SP'500. Were I only aware of this index, then yes, I'd be bullish right now. Yet, the NYSE composite (see previous post), and the Transports continue to warn of weakness on a multi-month basis.
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*more later this evening, and a few bits and pieces across tomorrow.