VIX - primary target achieved...where next?

The recent break of 21 lead me to believe 24 was the next target level. Well, the VIX closed in the mid 24s today, and it was a strong close. There is nothing yet suggesting the VIX has topped out. Lets look at those cycles, and especially a look at the weekly whose momentum could rise for some months to come.


VIX'60min

VIX' daily - bullish outlook

VIX, weekly

Summary

The hourly cycle on the VIX is a little high on the RSI, but could conceivably keep going up if the market is upset tomorrow. The daily is similarly very high on the MACD cycle, but its feasible for further moves into the high 20s - even low 30s on a panic day (sp'1270 ?).

The important weekly cycle is now at key resistance of 24..the next level is 31 - which traces back to the quake low of March 2011.

It would appear that if VIX can break into the 26/27 area tomorrow, a brief move into the low 30s is possible at any moment.  It would be ironic if Facebook debuts with a market dow -300 and VIX +30%. 

Closing Brief

Another dire day for this sick nasty market. All micro and larger cycles remain bearish. At some point this market will snap up for a multi-day rally. The problem is what level does that occur? 1300, 1290, 1270? One important aspect is that we've not seen a single day yet where there has been any significant selling, or where the VIX has spiked.

This was day'12 in the current down cycle, and makes it of equal length with the July/August collapse wave of 2011.


Sp'60min

Dow'60min

IWM'60min

Vix'60min

Summary

Just another bad day for the bulls, and once again...a very weak close.


Big dumb Bear

My expertise lies with the large multi-month, even decadal cycles, along with a good background in macro-economics. However, yet again, it is absolutely clear, as a trader...I suck. I've pre-empted the current down cycle, and have gone long before the market displayed a clear snap/break higher with a close above the 10MA, a truly stupid decision  I can only hope a bounce begins soon, at least to 1350, or my hopes for a good summer are over.

Yeah, its come to down 'hope'..which is never a good sign. I am sure most of you out there are doing better than yours truly.

PD.

3pm update - still no buyers

Another lousy afternoon for those on the bullish side, absolutely zero sign of a turn. With a number of monthly sell signals triggering today, and the VIX still rising, its looking pretty bad. The weekly chart is clear, a move to 1280 is easily possible within the next 1-3 days. The monthly chart now suggest a move to 1150 as early as mid June.


SP'60min, chart'1

VIX'60min

Summary

I scrubbed the 60min chart count, its a mess. The trend IS down, ALL cycles are bearish, even a move to mid 1330s tomorrow would not change anything, and despite it being 'Facebook Friday, even a 1% up move up seems a stretch.

Urghhh