Thursday 17 May 2012

VIX - primary target achieved...where next?

The recent break of 21 lead me to believe 24 was the next target level. Well, the VIX closed in the mid 24s today, and it was a strong close. There is nothing yet suggesting the VIX has topped out. Lets look at those cycles, and especially a look at the weekly whose momentum could rise for some months to come.


VIX'60min



VIX' daily - bullish outlook



VIX, weekly


Summary

The hourly cycle on the VIX is a little high on the RSI, but could conceivably keep going up if the market is upset tomorrow. The daily is similarly very high on the MACD cycle, but its feasible for further moves into the high 20s - even low 30s on a panic day (sp'1270 ?).

The important weekly cycle is now at key resistance of 24..the next level is 31 - which traces back to the quake low of March 2011.

It would appear that if VIX can break into the 26/27 area tomorrow, a brief move into the low 30s is possible at any moment.  It would be ironic if Facebook debuts with a market dow -300 and VIX +30%.