VIX - daily update

The VIX closed up a mere 5%, but it was arguably an important 5%, lets take a look at a few of the key charts.


VIX, daily, bullish scenario

VIX, daily, bearish scenario

VIX, weekly, 2yr

Summary

Even taking a bearish VIX scenario, I am still looking for a move to 24. Whether anything significantly over 24 occurs, that would be impossible to even remotely guess. As noted recently, we've had two major down moves in recent times - both of which were each motivated by a catalyst. In 2010..the Greek 'crisis round'1', in 2011 the 'American Govt might not pay its debt'. Will the market need something to kick it below at least sp'1300 in weeks to come?

The bigger VIX weekly cycle does help put things into perspective, and the VIX is still picking up a little underlying upside momentum. Clearly, a break over 21 will be key in the new month of May.

Closing Brief

A break and close below the 10MA on the hourly cycle! All things considered, today was about as good as the bears could have hoped for. Now, the bears will need follow through to the downside with a red close on Tuesday.  Similarly, the VIX increase - whilst very minor, could be the start of something significant.


SP'60min

SP' closes with almost a back-test of the important 10MA. Its a bear flag, but we sure need some follow through Tuesday into the 1385/80 range to confirm it.


IWM'60min

IWM was particularly weak into the close (not sure why), if 'minor wave'2' has been identified correctly, then we're looking for a new wave lower, probably to at least 79/80 within 2-4 days.


VIX'60min

VIX closes with a little bull flag, 21 remains the first target...then a break to 24.

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Daily Cycles will be covered later in the day.

3pm update - one hour left of April

The 1395 level failed to hold..that's good to see, but we only fell to 1394, not exactly a huge 'snap' lower.A close in the 1380s seems out of range.


SP'60min

*keep an eye on the VIX, so far its up just 5/6%, that's very little. A +8/10% close would bode well for some downward follow through tomorrow.

As ever, how we close is even more important than how we opened ...and everything in between!

Clown channel host talking of 'sell in May and go away'. Ahh yes...we're right back to that mantra again.

More after the close.