More trade concerns

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -19pts (0.7%) at 2774. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.0% and -0.7% respectively. VIX settled +7.8% at 13.63. Near term outlook still offers basic technical necessity of sp'2768, before resuming upward into the weekend.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened broadly weak on Trump's latest request for consideration of tariffs on another $200bn of Chinese goods. Yet, the market held together relatively well, only seeing a low of 2770.

Volatility was naturally higher, but only settled moderately higher in the mid 13s. Outlook for Thursday offers at least sp'2768, which should equate to VIX in the mid 14s.
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English defeat

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Stronger than expected

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +9pts (0.3%) at 2793. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled -0.4% at 12.64. Near term outlook offers cooling to minimum technical necessity of sp'2768, before resuming upward into the 2800s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and saw a morning high of 2795. There was a little cooling in the afternoon, a micro rally into the close, but notably shy of the morning high. Volatility was very subdued, with the VIX settling in the mid 12s.

Ongoing equity strength is indeed stronger than expected, but a cooling wave is due, if only for a day or two. The fact the Trans and R2K settled net lower today, is subtly suggestive the headline indexes (dow, sp', and nasdaq) will follow tomorrow and/or Thursday. In any case, more broadly, the outlook is bullish, as a superb earnings season is set to properly begin this Friday.
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

The DAX is currently +2.5% at 12609. Whilst still under the key 10MA, the long term trend from 2009 is still intact. Arguably, those seeking sp'3K late summer/early autumn, should look for the DAX to attain a July close above 12750 or so.

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Monday gains

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +24pts (0.9%) at 2784. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +2.0% and +0.6% respectively. VIX settled -5.1% at 12.69. Near term outlook offers a cooling wave, but likely no lower than the sp'2740s, even if the US President tweets some more trade threats.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The week began on a broadly positive note, as mainstream attention is naturally switching toward earnings, which are clearly going to come in broadly superb. VIX was subdued, melting to the mid 12s. S/t outlook does offer the sp'2740s, which would likely equate to a brief spike in the VIX to the 14/15s. More broadly, the outlook is bullish, and we could clearly see new historic highs in the R2K and/or Nasdaq comp' as early as tomorrow.
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Bonus chart: Australia, monthly

The AORD has broken a new multi-year high of 6383. Next target has to be the Nov'2007 historic high of 6873, which is another 7.7% higher, and viable within 3-4mths. Some strength in commodities would really help inspire Australian equities.

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