11am update - still clawing upward

US equity indexes are still clawing upward, lead by the Dow. Clearly, the market is assuming rates will be hiked this afternoon. However, if the tone from Yellen is interpreted as higher rates across 2018, then it'd be the excuse for a brief mini washout.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

3hrs until the press release from print central. Cyclically, its a little messy, The post FOMC setup will still favour the bears. Again though, we're only talking about a possible wave to 2640/30s across a day or so. Its nothing for most to even bother with.

Ohh, and sp'2671 is just 12pts shy of my year end target.

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notable strength, FCX, daily

Freeport has already pushed into the low $16s. Any monthly close >17 would offer 24/25 by summer 2018. Superior miner (at least technically) remains SCCO

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notable weakness, X, daily

US Steel continues to cool after the recent powerful push above resistance of the $31s. Indeed, a natural back test to the 31s - from 34s, is underway. M/t bullish to $40.00.

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notable stock, MU, daily

The gains are a little shaky. Someone is hungry for the July $65 calls, now totalling >5300. I see a >5000 block of the July $45s. Its possible someone is buying the $45s, but selling the 65s. In any case, its still a bullish trade for the m/t.
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time for lunch...

10am update - opening minor gains

US equity indexes open a little higher, with fractional new historic highs in the Dow and sp'500. VIX is naturally subdued, stuck in the mid 9s. A sporadic burst to the 11/12s remains due after the fed is out of the way. The metals and oil are both churning broadly flat.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

So... a pair of new historic highs, making it a day for the bulls. Price action will likely remain minor chop all the way into the 2pm announcement.

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A fair few interesting trades appeared at the open...

500 Jan'2019 $3 puts in SNAP
5000 Dec'15th $116 puts in GLD... if the market interprets rates as much higher in 2018, then gold will be vulnerable this afternoon, and into year end.
10000 Dec'15 $11 calls in VALE.

... and someone is picking up Dec15'th and Dec'29th puts in XLF. Arguably, seeking a 'sell the news' event, if only for a day or so.

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notable opening reversal, DIS, daily

DIS opens sig' higher, but has seen a full reversal. Disney are set to buy part of FOX tomorrow. The Marvel fans are frankly delirious, and the implications are for another truck load of characters to be merged into the 'Avengers universe'. Here is a scary thought... 40% of screened movies will be made by Disney.

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notable strength, WDC, daily

With the Toshiba dispute finally resolved, this is a major weight lifted off the stock. FPE 7s, m/t bullish to $100.. which really isn't that bold. They are buying the Jan' $85 calls in early trading.
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notable stock: MU, daily

Micron opened higher, but it will be highly vulnerable to cooling, not least if sp'2640/30s. Clearly though, any weakness will be a buying opp' for those bullish about earnings next Tuesday.

Interesting trade.  July'20th 2018, >1700 $65 calls... that is a long way up, but plenty of time on the clock.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are broadly flat, we're set to open at sp'2664. USD is -0.4% in the DXY 93.60s. The precious metals are still leaning weak, Gold -$3, with Silver -0.3%. WTIC is +0.6% in the $57s, ahead of the EIA report.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting CPI data (8.30am)
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Yesterday saw a new historic high of 2669. S/t price momentum continues to swing back to the bears though. A  bearish MACD cross is probable this morning. Soft target would be the lower bollinger, currently at 2643. Keep in mind the gap zone of 2646/36.

If Mr Market wants to cause max confusion, it will washout to the 2630s, before resuming upward into the Christmas break and all the way into mid/late January. By then of course we'll have the sp'2700s and Dow >25k.

As its a fed day, price action will be inclined to be subdued until the 2pm announcement. A further secondary reaction is likely once the press conf' begins at 2.30pm. On balance, net daily declines are due.

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early movers

AAPL -0.1%.. ongoing consolidation/chop, before the next big push upward.
ABX -0.4%, with gold
BABA +0.3%, underlying strength
DIS +1.1%, set to announce a deal with FOX this Thursday
FCX +0.3%, having cleared resistance of 15.00, next stop are the low 16s
HON -1.2%, despite raising guidance.
JD +0.7%, broadly choppy, soft target 49/50
MRO +0.5%, with oil
MS +1.2%, higher rates are bullish financials
MU +0.1%, vulnerable to $40.00 threshold, if sp'2640/30s.
NAT -21.0% (yes, TWENTY ONE), with a micro offering of $100 million.
RIG +0.7%, with oil
SQ -0.3%, choppy, still building a floor
TEVA +0.7%, s/t strong, soft target $20.00 threshold
TJX +2.5% in the $75s, upgraded by Cowen to $83 (from 79s)
TVIX -0.2%, with VIX +1.6% at 10.08
UAL +1.3%, soft target $70.
VALE -1.3%, broadly choppy, the cautious will wait to chase >12.00
WDC +4.0% in the $85s, agreeing a deal with Toshiba to settle a long running dispute.
X -0.8%, s/t weak, m/t strong to $40


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overnight markets

Its a real mix out there...

Japan: -0.5% at 22758
China: +0.7% at 3303, PBOC battling to end the year on a positive note?
Germany: currently -0.1% at 13166
UK: currently u/c at 7500
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Have a good Wednesday