Ending the month on a weak note

US equities ended the month on a moderately weak note, sp -5pts @ 2170 (intra low 2161). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +2.3% @ 13.42 (intra high 14.34). Near term outlook is for renewed upside, as the sp'2200s remain due.


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Summary

Today saw further weakness.. which was certainly a surprise. Yet the weakness was nothing of any significance, as has largely been the case since the BREXIT low of sp'1991.

VIX remains naturally subdued, as the market is comfortably holding above the breakout level of sp'2134. The key VIX 20 threshold looks out of range until at least the time of the Sept'21st FOMC.

I remain of the view that rates won't be hike until Dec'. If correct, the VIX might see not 20s until early Nov', as the US election would be a natural excuse for some higher (if brief) volatility.
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The monthly close

Without highlighting a truckload of world markets in this post (I will cover it in full at the weekend)... it was still a broadly bullish month.

sp'monthly

The sp' saw a net monthly decline of -2pts (0.1%), settling at 2170. There was a notable new historic high of 2193. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked upward for a sixth consecutive month, as the US market continues to battle upward.

Clearly, Sept/Oct' can be tricky for equities, and we have the election in early November of course. I'm well aware of some outlooks seeking the sp'1800s.. or even lower, but frankly, that just doesn't look probable. Instead, a year end close in the 2300s remains viable.. not least if Q3 earnings come in 'reasonable'.

Goodnight from London

A sixth consecutive net monthly gain?

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -4pts at 2176 (intra low 2170). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. VIX settled +1.4% @ 13.12. Near term outlook is bullish into and beyond the Labor day holiday break (Sept 5th), with sp'2225/50 a viable target by late September.


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Summary

A pretty subdued day.. as expected... leaning a little weak. Even the afternoon cooling to sp'2170 only saw the VIX climb to 13.60. A move to the 15s looks highly unlikely in the near term, with the key 20 threshold out of range until late September.

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A probable August net gain

sp'monthly

Considering the short term cyclical setup, the sp' is set for a sixth consecutive net monthly gain - the best run since summer 2013.

I am well aware - and would agree, that the Sept/Oct' period can be a struggle for equities, but broadly, I don't see a move back under the breakout level of sp'2134. Bears... look..... toast.

Yours.. the bullish permabear.

Goodnight from London

So shines a good deed in a weary world

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +11pts @ 2180. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. VIX settled -5.2% @ 12.94. Near term outlook offers a little chop in the 2183/75 zone, but with underlying upside as the 2200s remain due.


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VIX'daily3

Summary

With Jackson Hole out of the way, the market is starting to settle again, with the underlying upside showing itself.

VIX is naturally very subdued. A month ago, I had wondered if Jackson Hole might see the 15-17s. Instead, all we saw were the high 14s. The key 20 threshold looks no closer than another month.
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Closing update from Riley




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With just two trading days left of the month, my attention is on how the month will settle.

sp'monthly1b

As things are, we're certainly set to close above the key 10MA for a fifth consecutive month. However, perhaps more notable.. we're quite likely going to see a sixth consecutive net monthly gain for the sp'500 - which would be the best run since May 2013 (7 month run).

No matter what view/outlook you might have for Sept/Oct, the current trend is bullish, with August seeing new historic highs for the sp/dow/nasdaq.
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Mr Wonka died today... Gene Wilder, 83. A real personal favourite of yours truly.





If only Wonka was in charge of the world's monetary system. I'd sleep better.

Goodnight from London