A second week for the bears

US equities ended the week moderately mixed, sp -6pts @ 2071 (intra low 2062). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +0.2% @ 19.41. Near term outlook offers initial Monday upside to around 2090, but then a test of the critical 2025 low at some point next week.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Friday saw weakness across the day, but it was nothing of significance.. as reflected in the VIX that closed just fractionally higher.

A move to around sp'2090 is viable next Monday, and that would likely see the VIX cool to the 18/17s.

However, with the BREXIT vote ahead, equities are likely to see broad and increasing downward pressure, with VIX set for the 25/30 zone, viable before the polls close on Thursday (5pm EST).

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Market chatter from the Schiff




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sp'weekly1b

A second consecutive net weekly decline, with a lower high.. and a lower low. A notable quad-opex settlement under the key 10MA (2075). Next key support on the bigger weekly cycle is the 50ma (2024). Any daily close in the 2010s or lower, will offer a fast decline to the lower bollinger band.. which will be around 1920/00 into early July.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will detail the US weekly indexes

A mixed day in equity land

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +6pts @ 2077 (intra low 2050). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.3% and -0.1% respectively. VIX cooled -3.8% @ 19.37. Near term outlook offers the sp'2090s for quad-opex, before renewed downside to test the critical 2025 low within 3-6 trading days. If 2025 fails to hold, - as seems probable, then 1950/20.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

So.. a net daily gain for the sp'500.. but broadly, price action remains pretty bearish.

Even quad-opex upside to the 2090s won't negate the fact that we've seen a lower low.. and lower high this week.. as fully confirmed in a VIX that has broken into the 20s.

Price action back above the sp'2100 threshold looks highly unlikely.. as the bigger weekly cycles will soon see a bearish cross.


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USD ahead of BREXIT

USD, weekly

Without question, the looming BREXIT vote will be a key variable that will shape the rest of the summer... and for those in the UK/EU... years. A break above the DXY 100 threshold remains due, and that will have massive implications for just about everything.

Goodnight from London

Another day for the bears

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -3pts @ 2071 (intra high 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.1%. VIX cooled by -1.8% @ 20.14 (intra low 18.63). Near term outlook offers further bounce upside to the sp'2090/2100 zone, before renewed downside.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A fifth consecutive net daily decline for the sp'500... the most bearish run since February.

Despite some late day weakness... further upside to the sp'2090s.. perhaps even the 2100 threshold looks viable into the quad-opex weekly close, before things get real interesting next week.

*I checked the weather forecast for next Thursday - the UK election day. Its currently set to be warm and sunny... and by definition, that does favour a higher turnout. Some could argue that favours a greater number of conservative 'remain' voters will make the effort to vote. However, underlying sentiment continues to lean toward a 'LEAVE' vote.

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An update on the bigger picture...

sp'weekly1b

We have a rather secure mid term cycle high of sp'2120. Equity bears can re-short with a very tight short-stop. The risk/reward into next week is exceptionally good, and I'll likely take at least one or two speculative positions, based on the notion that we'll at least test the sp'2025 low. If that fails to hold, things should spiral to 1950/20 within days.. if not hours.

Goodnight from London