3pm update - bullish sunshine into the close

Despite a rather dynamic bearish opening reversal... with the market swinging from sp'2073 to 53, US equities are set to close moderately mixed. VIX continues to show no sustained/significant upside power... stuck in the lowly teens. For the equity bulls.. today was a little messy... but the market recovered yet again.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*re: hourly equity chart - I am trying to refrain from counting any of the waves, but hell, it ain't hard to see a large ABC /sub 2 wave.. starting from 2039... and ending somewhere close to 2100 next Mon/Tuesday.
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Little to add, on what has been a particularly twisted day.

I'm sure the day traders out there had a rather entertaining day, but for those with eyes more focused on the bigger picture, today offered very little clarity, as the market remains broadly stuck a mere 3-5% from historic highs.
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Here in London city..

Bullish UV.

Bearish shadow

After today, I could do with a week or two off.. but no... thats not viable. Each day... just... gets.... worse.

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back at the close

2pm update - minor chop

US equities remain broadly weak, but (as ever) there are buyers out there.... who are currently holding to the view that the market really has nothing to worry about in the near/mid.. or certainly... the longer term. That is currently reflected in the VIX, higher by just 1% in the upper 14s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Nothing to add...  too many personal issues.
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notable weakness, AA, daily

Ugly chart.. ugly company... a break of the 200dma seems highly probable.. with the mid/low $8s next week.

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I need some sun/air, or I'll completely lose my gods damn mind   ... back at 3pm

1pm update - Transports breaks the Friday low

Whilst the broader market remains moderately weak, there is more significant weakness in the 'old leader' - Transports, which has taken out the Friday low (equiv' to sp'2039).. currently -1.5% in the 7500s. The market looks set for increasing weakness for the remainder of this week.


Trans, daily

sp'daily5

Summary

*note the sp'500 seeing a minor bounce from the 50dma of 2053.
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As things are.. a break of the sp'2039 low looks probable.. along with VIX 16/17s.

Most realistic bearish case is a weekly close in the 2020/10s... with VIX 18/19s.

however, I just can't see any justifiable catalyst (other than pure cyclical/technical reasons) to have any realistic hope of anything lower than that.
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notable weakness...  AAPL, daily

With the $90 threshold taken out..  next big level is $70.. but for now.. the mainstream are in utter denial of what is currently underway.