Thursday, 12 May 2016

12pm update - increasingly weak

US equities continue to unravel, with the sp -9pts @ 2054, with the VIX +3% in the 15s. USD +0.3% in the DXY 94.10s. Oil has seen a strong reversal, currently -0.7%.


sp'daily5


sp'weekly1b



Summary

..busy... brb.

*If only some of you knew the crap I am having to deal with right now....  jeez.
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re: weekly1b:  a rather significantly FAIL-spike...   somewhat suggestive of sp'2000/1990s...
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11am update - bulls faked out

US equity indexes have seen a clear reversal, with most indexes already turning fractionally red. VIX is confirming the move, swinging from 13.95 to the 14.90s. As things are, things really only get interesting on a break of last Friday's low of sp'2039 - with VIX >17.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

*I'm trying to not get lost in the minor noise this hour... so daily/monthly charts!
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A clear reversal..  as initially seen in the precious metals/miners.

Now its a case of whether a daily close in the 2050s... or the 40s.
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There are a truckload of interesting movers so far today...

I'll highlight the bigger monthly cycles.. as they are what really interest me....

AAPL, monthly



NFLX, monthly


stay tuned!

10am update - opening reversal

US equities open higher, but the gains are less than pre-market levels. Far more notable is action in the precious metals/miners, which have seen a strong reversal. It remains the case that the broad strength in the metals/miners (since the Dec/Jan' low) are arguably an indirect bearish indicator for equities.


sp'60min



VIX'60min


Summary

It sure wasn't look so pretty an hour ago... but we clearly have a provisional reversal underway.. not just in equities, but reflected in a number of other asset classes.

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notable reversal... Gold, GLD, daily


Gold looks set to turn positive... with the miner ETF of GDX already +0.9% in the $25s.
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notable weakness... NFLX, daily



Ugly... real .. real ugly. First soft target is $70..... much like AAPL.
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10.03am.. The precise settling opening hourly equity candle.... BLACK-FAIL... with a major spike.. with hollow-red reversal for the VIX.

A real classic opening reversal... bulls got teased...     
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10.15am.. AAPL breaks the Aug' flash print low of $92.00.. as negative iPhone7 chatter concerns some. Next big support.. $70.