Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are broadly lower, sp -15pts, we're set to open at 2066. USD continues to weaken, -0.2% in the DXY 92.40s. Metals are little stronger, Gold +$6, with Silver +0.1%. Oil is sig' lower, -1.2% in the $44s.


sp'60min

Summary

So.... almost all of yesterday's gains are set to be negated at the open... for the bears.. this is a rather good start to the day.

What will be important is breaking under the Friday low of 2052... but that is 29pts (1.4%) lower... and considering the power of the rebounds... it won't be easy.

The bigger daily/weekly cycles continue to lean in favour of the bears.. and 2040 remains a realistic initial target this week.

Things only get interesting on a daily close in the 2020s, and that looks out of range this week.

*if we do break under 2033 though... a 38% fib retrace (of 1810-2111) to the 1990s will become a target.. before next opex.
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early movers...

BAC -1.3%.. as Mr Market is struggling whether to price in a rate hike.. or otherwise.
FCX -2.5% in the $13s.. which is a somewhat bizarre level considering the global economic weakness
SDRL -6.4%... as oil/energy sector back under pressure

VIX +8% in the 15.80s..  breaking the Friday high of 17.09 will be tough.... and will be more viable tomorrow.
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Update from Mr C.



Mostly commodity chatter.. but it merits some consideration.
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Overnight action

Japan: CLOSED
China: +1.8% @ 2992... are the PBOC meddling again?
Germany: -1.8% @ 9938... indeed, the loss of the 10K threshold will have some of the bull maniacs a little twitchy now.
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Have a good Tuesday
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9.27am.. In far more important news.. Capt' will ring the opening bell.

Bullish team Capt'

Japan continues to struggle

Whilst the US equity market started the month on a broadly positive note, there remained underlying weakness in Japan, with the Nikkei -3.1% @ 16147. Despite continued meddling by the BoJ, the Nikkei continues to struggle since the June 2015 high of 20952.


Japan, monthly

sp'monthly

Summary

sp'monthly: it is notable that the important 10MA is currently @ 2017. Equity bears seeking broad downside this summer/autumn should be seeking a May close well under that.. preferably <1950, which is some 6.5% lower.

The May 20th 2015 high of 2134.72 will indeed be almost a full year old in just 3 weeks time.


re: Japan: despite the BoJ printers spinning... its still not been enough to stop the Nikkei from broadly declining across the year. Target downside is the 13/12k zone.
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Market chatter from Schiff



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Looking ahead

Tuesday has nothing of significance scheduled.

*Fed official Mester will be speaking in the morning, with Lockhart in the evening.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +16pts @ 2081. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed downside to the 2040s. A daily close in the 2030/20s will be really difficult, along with a VIX above the key 20 threshold.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

Summary

sp'500: retracing much of the Thurs/Friday decline, but remaining under the key 10MA (2088). The lower daily bollinger and the 50dma are offering a realistic downside target of 2040 later this week.

Nasdaq comp': a daily gain of 0.9%, but still under the 200dma. The 50dma looks unlikely to cross back over the 200 in the near term. First downside target is the 4600/4500s.

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a little more later...