11am update - failed break

US equities remain net higher, but there is currently a clear failed break above declining trend/resistance from an early high of sp'2062. The hourly cycle is on the high side, and a net daily decline is now on the menu. Still... the equity bears have a lot to do... just to build a buffer zone from the key mid term high of 2075.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*note how the VIX held the short term upward trend.. whilst equities broke (but failed to hold) above.
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Well, I'm trying to get some things done today.. am just checking in near the top of each hour. I don't wish to get lost amongst the minor noise.

Suffice to note.. its fractionally interesting right now, but the fact we haven't already broken into the 2010s.. is increasingly annoying.

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time to shop...  back soon

10am update - opening gains

US equities open moderately higher, but the gains look somewhat vulnerable. With the USD -0.3% in the DXY 93.90s, the metals are powering upward, Gold +$15, with Silver +2.8%. The related mining stocks are seeing a clear breakout above recent highs.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*removed H/S scenario on the hourly equity chart, seems invalid with renewed gains.
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So, will the gains hold?

If the market can break above sp'2060, then... yes.. we'd almost certainly see a net daily gain.

It could be worse for the bears... but really. this is a pretty lousy start to the week.

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notable strength... miners, GDX, daily

A fifth day higher for GDX, and its clearly breaking out. In theory, that is an indirect bearish signal for equities.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +7pts, we're set to open at 2054. USD is -0.1% in the DXY 94.10s. Metals are back on the rise, Gold +$9, with Silver +1.4%. Oil is +0.4% in the $39s.


sp'60min

Summary

*as most will now be aware, there is a a Fed meeting today, but a closed one.

Notably, after the meeting, Yellen is due to then go meet the US President and Vice president. Speculation is rife on what that might be about.

The Fed is not political, right?
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As for equities, well, the open sure isn't going to be great for those short.

It remains simply the case.... holding under the recent highs of 2060 and '75, or...a massive breakout. Its one or the other.
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re: Gold/Silver: The precious metals are increasingly strong, and based on the action from late Dec-March, that could be argued is indirect bearish for equities. No doubt the weaker USD is currently helping.

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Overnight action

China: +1.6% @ 3033
Japan: latter day recovery, -0.4% @ 15751
Germany: currently +1.1% @ 9730
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Have a good monday