11am update - kooky TVIX

US equities remain in micro chop mode, sp -5pts @ 2044. Ongoing price action does not favour the equity bears, and it still seems probable we'll see the sp'2070/80 zone, along with WTIC oil in the $44/45s. VIX remains broadly subdued, currently +4% in the 14s.


VIX'60min

Summary

*back.. earlier than expected.
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So... VIX is still in the low teens... whilst the indexes are holding together very well.

It is notable we have Fed officials Lockhart and Bullard today, and both could be the excuse for further upside across the next few days.

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notable 'rogue print' in TVIX, 5min

So.. we have seen the $4s already today. Hmm
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time to cook

10am update - opening micro chop

US equities open very subdued, and are already settling into micro chop mode. Underlying price pressure remains leaning to the upside, with the sp'2070/80 zone seemingly probable before next opportunity of a key rollover. Metals are weak, Gold -$8. Oil is battling to build gains, +0.8% in the $41s.


sp'weekly1b

R2K, daily

Summary

*it is notable that the upper weekly bollinger is now starting to contract by around 10pts a week.
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There is not much to add, on what is likely to be a pretty subdued day.

R2K: we have a new cycle high of 1103, and the 200dma in the 1140s looks probable.. .which would equate to sp'2070/80.

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notable strength, TSLA, daily

Last Friday's close was pretty definitive, and we're now seemingly headed for $245/50 zone in the near term. For the equity bears out there, TSLA should be a pretty scary chart.
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notable weakness...

Despite the VIX being a little higher, TVIX continues to melt...

For the moment.. still seems zero reason to get involved. If Oil $44/45, equities will grind up.. the VIX will remain subdued, and TVIX will be in the $4s. Six weeks ago.. the $7s seemed a bold call.

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back at 12pm

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 2048. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 95.10s. Metals are weak, Gold -$9, with Silver -0.1%. Oil is -0.5% in the $41s.


sp'60min

Summary

With the central banks out of the way until next month, the equity bears really need to cool the market into end month.

However, considering oil - which looks headed to the $44/45s by late Wed' morning, further equity upside to the 2070/80 zone look probable.

.. but really... the line must be drawn there. Any daily closes >2080... and the broader bearish scenario will have to be dropped.

A March near sp'2K.. if not under, is pretty damn important.

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Fed/Gold chat, Hunter with Kirby



As ever, make of it what you will. I sure don't agree with all of it.
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Overnight action

Japan: CLOSED
China: +2.1% @ 3018
Germany: currently +0.5% @ 10,001

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Have a good Monday