Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +13pts, we're set to open at 1992. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 97.40s. Metals continue to retrace, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.3%. Oil is +2.4% in the $37s.... ahead of the latest EIA report.


sp'60min

Summary

Underlying MACD cycle is on the low side, so there is threat the opening gains will be built upon, especially if the market can tolerate the EIA report (10.30am).

Regardless of today though, the bigger issue will be the ECB tomorrow. If the EU markets are at least moderately pleased, we'll be testing the 200dma in the sp'2020s... and if that occurs by next Tuesday, it won't take much for a brief gap fill of 2038/43 on FOMC day itself.

From there though... we should max out.... and weaken into end month.

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I continue to have particular focus on Gold/miners

GLD, daily2

I'd sure like to see a 38% retrace complete by next Wednesday afternoon, which would help to signal equities have maxed out.


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Update from a particularly loud Mr C.


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Overnight action

Japan: -0.8% in the 16600s
China: -1.3% @ 2862
Germany: currently +1.3% @ 9817, 10K stands as huge resistance.
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Have a good Wednesday

We are almost there

From a price perspective, having ramped from sp'1810 to 2009, we're about there in terms of price. Similarly, we've seen around a month of time elapse, and in theory, that is more than enough to deem this latest bear market rally as almost complete.


sp'weekly8f

sp'monthly1b

Summary

Whether you agree with the notion of using previous patterns is not particularly important.

What most should be able to agree on though, is that since May'2015, the market has been increasingly upset, and has put in a series of marginally lower highs.. and lower lows.

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Equity bears MUST be seeking a March close under the monthly 10MA.. which currently sits at 2011. Preferably, the market will cool from mid March into end month, a closing <1950 would be a good bearish sign for April/May.
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Looking ahead

Wednesday will see Wholesale trade and the latest EIA report.

The market will be almost entirely focused on what will likely be another large Oil inventory surplus.. somewhere in the range of 6-8 million barrels.

Technically, WTIC Oil should not see any sustained price action above the $40 threshold, and primary target remains a new multi-decade low of $20.. and eventually, the 16/15s.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed broadly weak, with the sp'500 -22pts @ 1979. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.7% and -2.4% respectively. Near term outlook threatens early Wednesday weakness, but it still seems highly probable that the equity bulls will push >2009, to at least test the 200dma, into the next FOMC.


sp'daily

R2K

Trans

Summary

Suffice to add, the weakness in the two leaders - Trans/R2K, was very significant, but broadly, the main market saw only borderline sig' downside.. on what was.. relatively light vol'.

For the moment, renewed upside still looks due, into next week's FOMC.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...