2pm update - the chop continues

US equity indexes are moderately mixed, with the sp -1pt, whilst the Dow is +49pts. VIX is +3% in the mid 17s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least the ECB this Thursday. Metals are choppy, Gold +$5.. having briefly turned negative.


GLD, daily2

USO, daily2

Summary

Little to add.. on what is a quiet day.... tomorrow will likely be quieter..  and such light conditions favour the bulls.. via algo-bot upside melt.

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*I am aware, the infamous Gartman is lightening up on the long side.. so.. that probably confirms we're headed for 2020/40 zone into the FOMC.
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back at 3pm

1pm update - kinda close

US equities remain moderately higher, with most indexes on track to hit their respective 200dma's later this week. VIX remains broadly subdued, +2% in the low 17s. Metals are starting to struggle, Gold +$1, with Silver +0.2%.


sp'daily5b

GLD,daily2

Summary

I realise many might disagree, but even a simple 'add 20 days' to the sp'1810 low gives a target peak of this Friday (+/- a few days either way).

If we're trading in the sp'2020s this Wed-Friday, that might well be it, with a more decisive turn after the FOMC (March 16th) is out of the way.

For the moment, there seems zero reason for the bears to be involved until late Wednesday at the earliest, and even then, if we're only in the 2010s.. is still seems marginally risky.
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re: Gold/Silver. From a cyclical MACD perspective, its a lousy setup for those holding long. I still fear a sig' retrace ahead of the FOMC. That won't negate the broader bullish trend break of course.

Miners will be equally vulnerable into middle of next week.
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Back at 2pm.. maybe

12pm update - not surprisingly positive

With powerless equity bears, US equity indexes have already turned marginally positive, and it seems just a matter of which day this week the sp'500 will be trading in the 2020s. VIX is +1% in the low 17s.. but looks vulnerable for a red close. Gold is +$5, with the miner ETF of GDX +3.6% in the $20.40s.


sp'daily

Summary

*it is notable that we're currently net higher for the fifth consecutive day, the best run since mid Dec'2014.
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Little to add.

There is zero reason to see the market see any sig' weakness until the ECB this Thursday. That would be the valid excuse.

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notable weakness, TVIX, daily

With the VIX remaining broadly subdued, TVIX is already negative, and the 5s look viable if sp'2030/40s, and VIX 14/13s.
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time for tea