Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately weak, sp -9pts, we're set to open at 1936. USD is broadly flat in the DXY 97.40s. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$11 and Silver +0.3%. Oil is -1.2% in the $33s.


sp'60min

Summary

Market is seeing a minor cool down... but broadly... even the sp'1900 threshold looks out of range.. before the 1950/60s are first hit. So... I'd be looking for some latter day upside.
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early movers

CHK +2.5%... early gains, but is still in dire trouble
FCX -5.3%... as above
RIG -2.6%.... more trash...cooling

GDX +1.7%... as Gold rises, but looks highly vulnerable if Gold cools to the $1180s, before the next up wave into the spring.

TVIX +4.0% @ $8.50... but 7s look due if sp'1960s.

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Overnight action

Japan: -0.4% @ 16052
China: -0.8% @ 2903
Germany: currently -0.9% @ 9487
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Have a good Tuesday

A few more weeks

It would seem probable - based on many previous cycles, that equity bears don't have any realistic chance of sustained downside until at least mid March. For now, it remains a case of whether the market maxes out in the sp'1950/60s... or can battle upward to around 2K.


sp'weekly6

sp'monthly1b

Summary

re: weekly6: note the MACD (green bar histogram), continuing to tick upward. Another 2-3 blocks higher seem due. Whether we'll see a bullish cross by mid March... difficult to say. Even if we do though, the sp'500 should not be seeing any sustained price action above the 2K threshold.

re: monthly1b: note the 10MA, currently @ 2025. At the March 1st open (next Tuesday), that will drop to around 2000.

Equity bulls are going to face SEVERE resistance around sp'2000.


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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', existing home sales, Richmond fed.

*Fed official Fischer will be speaking AH, and that will likely sway the Wed' open.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +27pts @ 1945. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.8% and 1.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for further upside to the 1950/65 zone. From there, threat of cooling into end month, before resuming higher across first half of March to around sp'2K.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*the 'old leader' - Transports, looks headed for a test of the 200dma.. which in early March will be in the 7800s.
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As for the sp'500... next resistance is 1950/65 zone... some cooling into end month.. before a realistic test of the psy' level of 2K by mid March.
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Update from Riley (intraday, but it still applies)



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a little more later...