A few more weeks

It would seem probable - based on many previous cycles, that equity bears don't have any realistic chance of sustained downside until at least mid March. For now, it remains a case of whether the market maxes out in the sp'1950/60s... or can battle upward to around 2K.


sp'weekly6

sp'monthly1b

Summary

re: weekly6: note the MACD (green bar histogram), continuing to tick upward. Another 2-3 blocks higher seem due. Whether we'll see a bullish cross by mid March... difficult to say. Even if we do though, the sp'500 should not be seeing any sustained price action above the 2K threshold.

re: monthly1b: note the 10MA, currently @ 2025. At the March 1st open (next Tuesday), that will drop to around 2000.

Equity bulls are going to face SEVERE resistance around sp'2000.


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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', existing home sales, Richmond fed.

*Fed official Fischer will be speaking AH, and that will likely sway the Wed' open.
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Goodnight from London