US equities are comfortably holding significant gains, and it would seem we'll at least hit the sp'1950/65 zone in the current wave from 1902. The only issue is whether the market will manage the 2K threshold, and right now.. the bigger weekly charts support that notion.
sp'weekly1b
VIX'daily3
Summary
The VIX is notably back under the 20 threshold. 18s look due this week. If sp'2K... then 16/15s... briefly. Frankly... that looks a bizarrely good level to build an initial VIX-long position.
Fed official Fischer is speaking tomorrow AH, and that might give the excuse for 1960s.. before a short term pull back.
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US equities are building significant gains, and look set for the sp'1950/65 zone - where there are multiple aspects of resistance - notably the 50dma @ 1951. The bigger weekly cycles are more suggestive of 2K. Metals are under increasing pressure, Gold -$20, with Silver -1.8%. VIX has naturally lost the key 20 threshold.
sp'daily5b
sp'weekly6
Summary
*PMI manu': 51.0... a clear miss, and that should concern the macro-bulls.
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Note the weekly equity MACD (green bar histogram) cycle. We remain on the low side, and look set to tick higher at least for a few more weeks.
That sure doesn't mean we'll continue climbing at the current rate.. otherwise we'd be in the 2100s by mid March! What it does mean though... equity bears should be in no hurry.
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notable weakness... Gold
GLD, daily2
Gold is set for a bearish daily MACD cross tomorrow.. or Wednesday. In either case, it bodes for sub $1200, at least 1180/70s. At worse... a test of the 50/200dma in the $1150/40s.. equating to GLD 110/108 zone.
I am seeking to pick up a GLD-long position by mid March. I suppose I could also go long miners (via GDX), but initially, I'll likely just stick to a straight Gold play.
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Good morning. US equity futures are significantly higher sp +20pts, we're set to open at 1937. USD is powering upward (esp' against the weak GBP), +0.8% in the DXY 97.40s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$14, set to lose the $1200 threshold. Oil is bouncing, +2.8% in the $32s.
sp'60min
Summary
*GBP/USD: -2.0% @ 1.40, as talk of the UK leaving the EU jumps as PM Cameron announces a referendum for June.
So.... GBP parity to the USD. Great.... just great. I suppose the upside is my trading acc' funds are USD... so technically, I'm up 2% already this week ;)
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Significant gains to start the week, and if you're counting the days from the sp'1810 low, today is day'7 UP (inc' the low itself).
The 1950/65 zone looks a relatively easy target, but with multiple aspects of resistance, it won't be easy to break above.
The bigger weekly cycles are threatening another 2-3 weeks higher before the next rollover...so... a hit of the 200dma and 10mma look viable.
Best guess; Mr Market being the monster that it is.... wash out the bears >1970.... and draw in a large amount of bulls..... but then whipsawing lower from around 2K.
Even a move to around sp'2K won't wreck the bigger bearish outlook... so long as we don't sustainably trade above it.
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early movers
GDX -2.1%... as the precious metals cool
TVIX -5% in the $8.70s.. as volatility is set for the upper teens.
CHK, FCX, both +5%.... as even the trash is being marked up.
CREE +3.6%
DISCA +9.8%
