Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 1893. USD is u/c in the DXY 98.80s. Metals are weak, Gold -$8. Oil is a touch higher, +0.1% in the $30s.
sp'60min
Summary
Market mood remains broadly weak.
Right now, we're clearly due a bounce... but anyone considering going long, should be well aware there is serious threat of the 1750/25 zone before end month.
Default trade remains to the short side across the weeks and months ahead.
Considering the recent equity drops, the VIX remains relatively lower in the 25s. We sure haven't seen any capitulation spike yet.
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Update from Oscar
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Chatter from Riley
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Overnight action
Japan: -2.7% @ 17240.... to be expected
China: late day rally, +2..0% @ 3007
Germany: currently -2.3% @ 9735.... the 10K threshold is now looking a long way up. First real support is the double top of 2000/2007, around 8K.
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Have a good Thursday
8.48am.. sp +8pts @ 1898.
It is notable that we could see a sig' gain of 1%, but that only reaches sp'1910... still 3% short of the updated basic fib bounce target of 1960.
Anyone seriously think we can trade >2K, before 1750/25 ?
notable mover, TVIX -2.4% @ $9.30.... which is right where I sold it at on Monday afternoon.
A new movie trailer has appeared for 'Money Monster', which is clearly based on Jim Cramer and his program 'Mad Money' on CNBC. Produced by Smokehouse Pictures, and distributed by Sony Pictures Entertainment, it tells the story of a viewer whose latest trade didn't work out so well.
George Clooney as Jim Cramer, Lee Gates
*warning: trailer contains significant plot spoilers, but hell, this is no Citizen Kane, and I'd recommend viewing it anyway.
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First, let me say.. I'm not surprised to see such a story be put together.
The Cramer is a truly infamous character, having appeared in a few movies (most notably, Iron Man), and his 'Mad Money' show is pretty well known.
We now have a fictional story of a really pissed trader who goes after the host on live TV. The movie looks okay (if somewhat predictable), and Clooney and Roberts are always good.
Technical difficulties indeed
Yes.. its the 'sell sell sell' button
Cramer.. I mean, Gates wearing a bomb vest
The evacuation of clown finance TV
William Banzai... suit up!
Money Monster is going to offer all sorts of fun opportunities for those with photoshop/video editing skills. Mr Banzai - of Zerohedge fame, will no doubt be on the case with this latest financial movie.
I do wonder what Cramer and CNBC will make of this movie... due for release in May.
Ironically, the market should be at its weakest across the April-June period.. so... its all syncing up rather well :)
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As for the equity market
There is a possibility that we're seeing a 5 wave decline from sp'2081.. and have.. or are about to floor. If you consider that we fell across 10 days.. a bounce would likely span 4-5 days... with a viable fib' retrace to the 1960/80 zone.
sp'60min'2
On the bigger weekly cycle...
sp'weekly8d
The 1750/25 zone remains a serious threat in the near term, not least if the Aug' low of 1867 fails to hold. Keep in mind that the two market leaders - Trans/R2K, are already both below their respective Aug'2015 lows.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see more earnings, notably JPM.
Data: weekly jobs, import/export prices
*Fed official Bullard will be speaking in the early morning
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US equities opened moderately higher to an early peak of sp'1950, but
then increasingly spiralled lower, settling -48pts @ 1890 (intra low @
1886). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -3.7% and -3.3%
respectively. With the loss of the 1900 threshold, the door is open to the
1750/25 zone.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
Most notable today... a reversal from opening moderate gains... with a powerful swing of 3.2% for the sp'500.
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sp'500 - the Aug' low of 1867 is an easy target. Any failure to hold that... and 1750/25 (where there are multiple aspects of support).. before end month.
R2K - now in the 1010/00 support zone. Any price action <1K would bode for continued and increasingly powerful declines.. equiv' to sp'1700s.
Trans - a new multi-year low of 6675...seemingly headed for 5500/5000 in the months ahead.
