11am update - choppy, and bearishly tired

US equities are certainly not showing much upside kick, but neither do the bears look remotely able to break below the original target zone of sp'1920/00. A bounce to the 1980/90 zone looks probable... and that will at least take until Thursday.. if not into next week.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

It sure is choppy, and no... I'm not expecting a sig' net Monday gain.

However.. the situation doesn't look great for the bears, and I'm increasingly glad I made a run for the exit door.

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*I have ZERO interest in trying to trade the upside bounces. I realise some of you can... but I shall refrain from that. Instead, its sit back and wait...for the 1980/90 zone.

On no reasonable outlook does sustained price action >2K look possible.

To me.. an equity-index re-short (and/or long VIX) from the sp'1980/90 zone looks a no-brainer.
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11.01am...   new cycle low of sp'1917....  but VIX remains negative.

Nothing has changed.. still expecting a bounce.

Anyone still short is arguably getting a bonus opportunity to close out... or at least tighten stops.
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meanwhile....

FCX, daily

Mr Market is clearly starting to consider that FCX might 'disappear'.
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11.08am.. sp'1913...     VIX remains -2%.

Again, the risk still appears against the equity bears.. from a pure cyclical perspective.

.. and its typical floor time anyway.   When are the buy programs going to start appearing?
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11.29am.. So.. marginal new low of 1913.51... but we're clearly exhausted in terms of downside.

Today was very likely a bonus opp' for bears to exit.. and wait for a sig' bounce.

10am update - cyclically due to rally

From a pure cyclical perspective, equities are set to rally for a few days. Considering opex is this Friday, there is clear threat of the market battling at least to the 1980s. However, sustained action above the 2K threshold looks out of range.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*I EXITED TVIX-long, as the micro 5/15 min cycles look highly vulnerable to turning lower.. as equities are threatening upside.. with VIX cooling back under the 20 threshold.
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A disappointing overnight session, with equities rebounding - despite China imploding by another -5%.

7 down days from the sp'2081 high.

3 days UP.. from 1918 looks probable. In any case.. 1980s look a serious threat, and I'm content to side step things.


Just so there is no misunderstanding...

I have ZERO interest in trying to trade any equity bounces. I'd rather sit back, and wait for a better short entry.

If the market resumes falling without me... so be it.
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With each minute of price action.. it sure doesn't look bullish... but neither does it merit being short... at least to me.

A moderate net daily gain looks probable.
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10.31am... Looks like Friday afternoon was the floor of this down wave @ 1918.

It'll be a tough battle to push upward - as weekly/monthly cycles are hugely bearish.. but we should get there.

Eyes on the VIX.. a daily close in the 24/23s looks possible now.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures have swung from an overnight low - equiv' to sp -18pts @ 1904, to +7pts, we're set to open at 1929. Commodities remain broadly weak, with Copper losing the $2.00 threshold, whilst Oil is -0.8% in the $32s.


sp'60min

sp'daily3

Summary

*first soft resistance remains the hourly 10MA, which this morning will be in the 1940/35 zone.
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We're clearly seeing the first attempt to clarify that 1920/00 zone is a short term floor.

There is NO question though, broadly.. we're headed much lower in the weeks and months ahead. The sp'1650/1550 zone looks extremely probable by May/June.

For now... there is clearly threat that an overnight ES low is in at 1893.

If that is a low, then a 50% retrace of the down wave from 2081 offers the 2000/1999 threshold.

I'd argue it is overly risky a bounce to play.. as we might simply resume falling later today though.
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Best guess... the cash market to test the overnight low in the 1905/00 zone... and then a bounce into opex, and probably a week beyond.

Sustained action above the monthly 10MA (2030s) and indeed, the sp'2K threshold looks out of range for at least EIGHT months.

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Update from Oscar



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Doomer chat, Hunter with Kirby



As ever, make of that, what you will. I still think the gold bugs are yet to capitulate... and the notion of a USD collapse is ludicrous. Would you rather hold Euros or Yen? Of course, in the minds of Gold bugs, we will all be shopping at Walmart with gold/silver coins in our pockets. There is higher probability of me winning the powerball each week for a year.
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Overnight action...

Japan: CLOSED
China: -5.3% @ 3016. A loss of 3K will confirm that the 2500s are coming... pretty soon.

Germany: currently +0.5% in the 9900s. Sustained action >10K looks unlikely for months.
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... and Bowie died this weekend :(  
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Good wishes for the trading week ahead
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8.47am.. sp +10pts... 1932.

Indexes look vulnerable to turning red later today.  For the moment, there is ZERO reason - other than technical, to expect a bounce.

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Oil remains a problem for the equity bulls... the loss of the $30 threshold looks a given.. just a matter of in this cycle.. or the next.

*the fact the market was unable to rally on 'good jobs news' remains a pretty bearish event.

... here comes Cramer...


9.06am  Well, so far no one wants to buy the market above sp'1935 or so. 

Oil is looking problematic, -1.3%.


9.40am... EXITED TVIX-long.... .   I just don't like the smaller cycles setup... nevermind the overnight futures reversal.