3pm update - surprised

US equities have been utterly unable to build a floor, with a new low of sp'2043... a full 61pts (3.0%) lower since yesterdays open. USD continues to cool, with an unquestionably severe fall of -2.2% in the DXY 97.70s. Commodities are seeing natural gains, Gold +$10, with Oil +2.2%.. but well below the earlier high.


sp'daily5

UUP, daily

Summary

The decline in the USD is unquestionably a major part of today's upset.

You can't see the reserve currency of the world fall over 2% without ricochet effects across all capital markets.

... and with the jobs data tomorrow.. and an OPEC meeting tomorrow... this is turning into a real crazy week.

Next support is around sp'2040.. where the 50dma is lurking... if that doesn't hold.. then its 2020/00 zone.

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notable movers....

CHK -12%
DIS -2%
INTC -2%
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As for volatility...   VIX'60min

The big 20 threshold is within range.. and to me.. that is a surprise.
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updates into the close.............


3.18pm.. VIX +20% in the low 19s...

Hourly cycle RSI is 75.. and that is VERY high for the VIX. On any basis.. this is very high end of the cycle.
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To be clear.. from a pure cyclical perspective, the risk tomorrow will be against the equity bears.... especially those short energy stocks.. if OPEC at least seriously threaten some cuts.

notable weakness: bonds, TLT -2.8%.... very rough day in bond land.. but more on that later.



3.29pm.. USD -2.3% in the DXY 97.70s.... a crazy strong move.. from the big 100 threshold.
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3.36pm.. again, its only provisional..

...another attempt at a spike floor.. this time from sp'2042.

A close in the 2050s would be HIGHLY suggestive of a floor.. ahead of the jobs data.
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3.43pm. Market is FIERCELY battling to secure a second hourly spiky-floor candle.

From a pure cyclical perspective, equity bears are at EXTREME risk of a whipsaw higher tomorrow, even though multiple key levels were broken today.

2pm update - the wild action continues

US capital markets continue to see some rather wild price action. Now its a case of whether a close above.. or below the 200dma of sp'2064. USD continues to weaken, on any basis, a rather severe drop of -2.0% in the DXY 97.90s. Gold +$11. Oil +3.0%.


sp'60min

TLT, daily

Summary

*again, I want to highlight the bonds.. adjusting to a near certainty of higher int' rates.

TLT -3.1% in the $119s... first soft target is 110.. by mid/late spring.
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So much for the earlier spike floor hope of sp'2058.

The 2.30pm time offers next opportunity for a floor/turn. 

Those currently short.... are getting a chance to tighten stops... ahead of OPEC and the monthly jobs data.
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re: Oil....

Oil is still battling to break AND hold above declining trend. Right now.. its marginal.. oil bulls should be seeking the $13s tomorrow. Cyclically.. the pressure is turning UP.
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Finally... for those who think I am crazy bullish... here is the most bearish chart out there...

Trans, daily

Not pretty... not least for what is often, a leading index.


2.42pm.. sp'2104 to 2044....  60pts.. 3%.. in just 2 days...  

1pm update - very dynamic price action

The sp'500 breaks a new intra low of 2059, decisively taking out the 200dma of 2064. USD remains severely weak, -1.9% in the DXY 98.10s. Oil is seeing a mini explosion to the upside, +3.4% in the $41s - with OPEC looming. Meanwhile, US bonds are notably weak, the ETF of TLT -2.7%.


USO'daily2

TLT, daily

Summary

*there is a great deal going on today.. hard to keep up.

For this hour.. I at least wanted to highlight bonds.. will likely cover them in far more depth in my late day post at 11pm EST.

Suffice to say.. bond prices are falling.. as yields are (naturally) on the rise.. ahead of the next FOMC.
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As for equities... very difficult to call the close.

Clearly, the market will have massive excuse for a major move tomorrow... with the jobs data.
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notable strength, RIG +4.3%... as oil climbs... and a short-stop cascade is likely underway. I remain LONG... seeking a higher exit in the $15s.

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stay tuned!


1.19pm.. We have a viable spike floor from sp'2058.

Equity bulls should be battling for a daily close back above the 200dma (2064).