sp'daily5
UUP, daily
Summary
The decline in the USD is unquestionably a major part of today's upset.
You can't see the reserve currency of the world fall over 2% without ricochet effects across all capital markets.
... and with the jobs data tomorrow.. and an OPEC meeting tomorrow... this is turning into a real crazy week.
Next support is around sp'2040.. where the 50dma is lurking... if that doesn't hold.. then its 2020/00 zone.
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notable movers....
CHK -12%
DIS -2%
INTC -2%
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As for volatility... VIX'60min
The big 20 threshold is within range.. and to me.. that is a surprise.
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updates into the close.............
3.18pm.. VIX +20% in the low 19s...
Hourly cycle RSI is 75.. and that is VERY high for the VIX. On any basis.. this is very high end of the cycle.
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To be clear.. from a pure cyclical perspective, the risk tomorrow will be against the equity bears.... especially those short energy stocks.. if OPEC at least seriously threaten some cuts.
notable weakness: bonds, TLT -2.8%.... very rough day in bond land.. but more on that later.
3.29pm.. USD -2.3% in the DXY 97.70s.... a crazy strong move.. from the big 100 threshold.
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3.36pm.. again, its only provisional..
...another attempt at a spike floor.. this time from sp'2042.
A close in the 2050s would be HIGHLY suggestive of a floor.. ahead of the jobs data.
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3.43pm. Market is FIERCELY battling to secure a second hourly spiky-floor candle.
From a pure cyclical perspective, equity bears are at EXTREME risk of a whipsaw higher tomorrow, even though multiple key levels were broken today.