2pm update - clear turn?

US equity indexes break a new intra high of sp'2041, having swung from an opening low of 2019. Regardless of the exact close, until a daily close >2060, there is not yet full clarity on a key turn... although today probably was it. Metals have lost most of the opening gains, Gold +$2, with Silver +0.1%. Oil has swung to +1.2%.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*a clear black-fail spiky candle on the Gold daily chart. Broadly, much lower levels look due into next year. The low of $1072 makes little sense as a key multi-year low.... $1000 looks due. As ever... if correct, it will drag the related mining stocks lower.
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So... was this morning a key low?

Personally, I don't much like it... but then.. I'm just not in the mood to hit buttons today... other than the publish key. I guess you could argue I'm overly twitchy on Oil affecting the broader market.
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notable weakness: airlines, DAL -2.5%, UAL -1.5%.. the 'French event? The upward swing in Oil can't be helping either.

strength: AAPL, +1.4%... having swung from -1.3% or so at the open.
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back at 3pm

1pm update - retail remains weak

Whilst the main equity indexes push moderately upward to sp'2035, there remains notable weakness in retail stocks. Macy's (M), -2.4%, Urban Outfitters (URBN) -9.4%, and JCP -0.7%. The broader trends since the summer peaks remain absolutely dire, even worse than the energy sector.


M, daily

URBN, daily

Summary

Just last Thursday lunch time on clown finance TV channel'1 (aka.. CNBC) the chatter was focused on the retail stocks. Despite Macy's posting lousy numbers... a few of the cheerleaders were (not surprisingly) still bullish...

Crawling out of the hole this Monday.. Jim Lebenthal...

Mr L. was touting JCP when it was battling in the high $8s. Today, its lower by almost 20% in the following 3 trading days.

We all make bad calls, but seriously, I'm absolutely bemused why anyone would be bullish the old retail stocks (and lets not forget Sears (SHLD).. which is similarly destroyed.
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... and yes.. retail sales as a whole remain broadly weak.. despite gasoline/energy prices remaining close to multi-year lows. How would sales react if Oil ever gets back near $100 ?

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stay tuned

12pm update - battling to hold the $40 threshold

Whilst US equities remain in moderate chop mode, there remains notable weakness in WTIC Oil, -1.3% in the low 40s (intra low $40.06), battling to hold the key $40 threshold. With inventories likely to remain in surplus mode into 2016, there is little reason to be bullish about the black-gold.


USO, daily2

 

sp'60min

Summary

*it is notable that Oil is lower for 8 of 9 trading days. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles both support the notion of sustained action <$40 into year end.. .and beyond.
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A relatively subdued start to the week... as the equity market battles it out to solidify a floor.

My concern (in terms of going long).. does indeed remain Oil. Even a brief foray into the high 30s would be an excuse for sp'2000/1990s.. before a much more decisive and stronger reversal than we saw today.

For now... I'm content to watch.


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VIX update from Mr T.




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time for tea :)