12pm update - battling to hold the $40 threshold

Whilst US equities remain in moderate chop mode, there remains notable weakness in WTIC Oil, -1.3% in the low 40s (intra low $40.06), battling to hold the key $40 threshold. With inventories likely to remain in surplus mode into 2016, there is little reason to be bullish about the black-gold.


USO, daily2

 

sp'60min

Summary

*it is notable that Oil is lower for 8 of 9 trading days. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles both support the notion of sustained action <$40 into year end.. .and beyond.
--

A relatively subdued start to the week... as the equity market battles it out to solidify a floor.

My concern (in terms of going long).. does indeed remain Oil. Even a brief foray into the high 30s would be an excuse for sp'2000/1990s.. before a much more decisive and stronger reversal than we saw today.

For now... I'm content to watch.


--
VIX update from Mr T.




--
time for tea :)