12pm update - spiky flooring candles

The sp'500 remains lower for the third consecutive day, and notably.. the 7th daily decline of the last 8 trading days. VIX continues to flirt with the key 20 threshold. Commodities remain under pressure, Gold -$2, Silver -0.4%, with Oil -2.4% in the $40s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

From a pure cyclical perspective, we're very oversold on the hourly cycle.

Hourly equity candles are offering spike floors.... suggestive an initial floor is being formed.

Regardless of whether we close the week in the 2030s, or more likely 40/50s, it will be a net weekly decline for all the US indexes... with probable further downside next week.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time to see what the cheerleader maniacs on clown finance TV are saying...

11am update - continuing to unravel

US equity indexes continue to decline, with a new cycle low of sp'2027. The broader market is clearly pressured by WTIC Oil, on the edge of losing the $40s, -2.3%. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, Silver -0.5%. VIX has hit the key 20 threshold, currently net higher on the week by a very powerful 40%.


sp'daily5

USO, daily2

VIX'daily3

Summary

The bigger daily/weekly cycles for Oil remain outright bearish, sub $40s look due... and that sure won't help the broader US market.

As things stand, the sp' is currently net lower on the week by 67pts (3.2%), and this is clearly going to spook many in the mainstream.

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*I continue to favour BAC as a longer term bullish play... but the daily chart only saw an initial break of trend yesterday...

BAC, daily2

Cyclically, another 2-3 days lower look probable. Right now, I could only stomach going long somewhere around $16.50. For now... I'm more than content to just watch.

**to be absolutely clear, if the Fed do not raise rates at the Dec' FOMC, the broader market and especially the financials will (ironically) likely fall.

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time for an early lunch

10am update - opening weakness

US equity indexes open on the weak side, breaking a new cycle low of sp'2037. Metals are weak, Gold -$3, the $1072 low remains in imminent danger. Oil is sig' lower for a third consecutive day, -1.6% in the $41s.


sp'60min

USO' daily2

Summary

*ongoing weakness in commodities is putting some distinct downward pressure on the broader market.
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Perhaps somewhat appropriate, a Panda bear opens the market on this Friday 13th...

Bearish open at the NYSE

From a cyclical perspective, the smaller 15/60min cycles are offering choppy weakness across today.

Best guess.. a weekly close in the 2050s.. with further weakness next week.

Other than a few individual stocks - such as BAC, the outlook is still for the market to hold above the sp'2K threshold.

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back at 11am