3pm update - vulnerable into the weekend

US equities look vulnerable into the weekly close, although as things are, a sixth consecutive net weekly gain for the sp'500 looks probable. Regardless of the exact close, with a rate rise now likely at the Dec' FOMC, things are really starting to get interesting in terms of the outlook for 2016.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Price structure on the hourly chart could be argued is just a giant bull flag - that begins from the sp'2116 high, but considering the daily MACD cycles, it still appears we're already in a retrace.. that will either floor in the 2060s.. or the 2020s.

Considering the VIX is only in the 15s.... the key 20 threshold would probably equate to at least the 2050/40s.
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notable weakness: miners, GDX, -3.8%... a horrible weak for anything gold related.

Oil remains similarly weak, -2.1% in the $44s.
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back at the close...... unless we break <2079..

2pm update - the battle continues

US equities remain moderately weak, with the sp -6pts @ 2093. There remains threat of another wave lower into the weekly close. Equity bears should be seeking a break <2079. USD is holding powerful gains of 1.3% in the DXY 99.30s... and that is not helping the precious metals/Oil.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly1b

Summary

A third consecutive daily net daily declines looks due for the sp'500... and yes... some of the other indexes might yet close positive, notably the R2K and Nasdaq'

As things are, we're set for the sixth consecutive net weekly gain.. although any close in the 2085/80 zone would at least offer a spiky top candle this week, which would be suggestive of downside across the next two weeks.

Q. Anyone wondering if today's jobs data will be revised significantly lower, or is this actual good news?

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Metals remain very weak, Gold -$13, with Silver -1.5%. Related miners, GDX -3.3%... horrible week.

Similarly, Oil ending the week badly, -1.9% in the $44s,

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back at 3pm

1pm update - underlying weakness

Despite a number of attempts to rally, equities remain moderately lower, sp -10pts @ 2089. USD is holding powerful gains, +1.4% in the DXY 99.20s. A monthly close (whether Nov, Dec.. or Jan).. above the DXY 100 threshold looks a given... and has a great many implications for 2016.


sp'60min

Summary

It remains a bit messy, but broadly.. the underlying weakness is there.. a weekly close in the 2070s would be useful to the bears.. and offer clarity that we'll get that retrace to the 2020s.. where the 50dma will be lurking by Nov' opex.

notable strength: BABA -4.6%, as Jim Chanos is reported on CNBC that BABA is a target short.

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Brief look at US bonds... via TLT, weekly

A net weekly decline of around -3%... conclusive break of rising support. The bigger monthly cycle looks ugly.. first grander target is the 100/95 zone.