Friday, 6 November 2015

3pm update - vulnerable into the weekend

US equities look vulnerable into the weekly close, although as things are, a sixth consecutive net weekly gain for the sp'500 looks probable. Regardless of the exact close, with a rate rise now likely at the Dec' FOMC, things are really starting to get interesting in terms of the outlook for 2016.




Price structure on the hourly chart could be argued is just a giant bull flag - that begins from the sp'2116 high, but considering the daily MACD cycles, it still appears we're already in a retrace.. that will either floor in the 2060s.. or the 2020s.

Considering the VIX is only in the 15s.... the key 20 threshold would probably equate to at least the 2050/40s.

notable weakness: miners, GDX, -3.8%... a horrible weak for anything gold related.

Oil remains similarly weak, -2.1% in the $44s.

back at the close...... unless we break <2079..