Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 2017. With the USD -0.5% in the DXY 94.80s, commodities are on the rise.... Gold +$14, Oil +2.0%... above the key $50 threshold - next target is 55/57.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly1b

Summary

*all US indexes are set for the second consecutive significant net weekly gain.
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So.. we're set to open higher.. .and now its a case of whether we end the week a little above.. or a below the previous FOMC (Sept 17th)  high of sp'2020. In many ways... it doesn't much matter.. as we're still set for powerful net weekly gains of 3% or so.

Broadly.. the market looks on track for the 2040/60 zone.. and as I shall keep droning on about, the ultimate issue is whether that will result in a critical FAIL. 

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notable early movers

AA, -2.4% @ $10.75... after a very bad earnings outcome.
GDX +3.3%... as the metals start to fly.
TSLA -3.6%... a rough week for that one.

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Overnight Asia action..

Japan:  +1.6% @ 18438.
China: +1.3% @ 3183... the 3200/300s look due next week.
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Have a good Friday

Eyes on China

China has resumed trading after a much needed week long break... with a Thursday net daily gain of 3.0% @ 3143. There looks to be further upside to the 3250/3350 zone. Any price action >3400 would be highly suggestive that a key floor has been solidified.    


China, daily

China, monthly

Summary

*note the monthly MACD (green bar histogram) cycle, is now negative, for the first time since July 2013. In theory, there is a viable 3-6 months of further downside to come.
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What should be clear... the broader trend remains VERY bearish... and a FULL retrace of the summer 2014/15 gains remains very viable.

As is the case for the US/EU markets.. the next few weeks will be rather critical. If the markets can't keep pushing higher... we'll see another key rollover... and new multi-year lows will be due.
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Looking ahead

Friday will see import/export prices, and wholesale trade.

*there are two fed officials on the loose.
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A green candle

I shall conclude today with a simple.. but what I still consider a rather useful chart...

sp'weekly7

An outright bullish green candle... and again, you should see why the sp'2040/60 zone remains important. Anyway.. we're set for the second consecutive significant net weekly gain.. and that ain't bearish in the immediate term.. is it?

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed broadly higher, sp +17pts @ 2013. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 0.9% respectively. With a break above the 2K threshold, near term outlook is for a straight run to the 2040/60 zone. The ultimate issue is whether the market can re-take the monthly 10MA.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

A rather bullish day for the US equity market.. as another tranche of bears get short-stopped above the psy' level of sp'2000.

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Trans is obviously at declining resistance, but considering the other indexes..the Trans will probably battle upward.. to the 8450/8550 zone.

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a little more later...