Friday 9 October 2015

Eyes on China

China has resumed trading after a much needed week long break... with a Thursday net daily gain of 3.0% @ 3143. There looks to be further upside to the 3250/3350 zone. Any price action >3400 would be highly suggestive that a key floor has been solidified.    


China, daily



China, monthly



Summary

*note the monthly MACD (green bar histogram) cycle, is now negative, for the first time since July 2013. In theory, there is a viable 3-6 months of further downside to come.
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What should be clear... the broader trend remains VERY bearish... and a FULL retrace of the summer 2014/15 gains remains very viable.

As is the case for the US/EU markets.. the next few weeks will be rather critical. If the markets can't keep pushing higher... we'll see another key rollover... and new multi-year lows will be due.
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Looking ahead

Friday will see import/export prices, and wholesale trade.

*there are two fed officials on the loose.
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A green candle

I shall conclude today with a simple.. but what I still consider a rather useful chart...

sp'weekly7


An outright bullish green candle... and again, you should see why the sp'2040/60 zone remains important. Anyway.. we're set for the second consecutive significant net weekly gain.. and that ain't bearish in the immediate term.. is it?

Goodnight from London