12pm update - moderate weakness

US equities continue to cool... with a break of the hourly 10MA. For now though.. there appears little chance of significant/sustained downside power. At best, the sp'1960/50s before resuming higher. The sp'2000s still look a relatively easy target. Oil has built powerful gains of 3.7% in the $48s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Having hyper-ramped from sp'1893 on Friday morning to 1991 this morning... 98pts (across 14 trading hours)... a retrace is clearly not exactly a surprise.

There are clear gaps around sp'1950 and VIX 21... so.. right now.. that'd be the more natural level to hit.

--
VIX update from Mr T.



--
time for tea... and something.. cake?

11am update - just another tease

US equities cool from an early high of sp'1991 to 1979... along with VIX climbing from an early low of 18.82 to 19.77. However, this is likely just a minor tease to the equity bears before resuming higher to the sp'2000/2010 zone. Best case upside remains the 200dma in the 2060s.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

I see zero reason for any of the bears to be getting involved right now.

China will reopen later tonight.. and considering the other world markets.. will likely see sig' gains.. and that will then offer the sp'2000s tomorrow.

-
notable weakness, DAL, -1.4%

Things would get real interesting if it remains stuck under $48.

Higher oil, +3.2%.. is certainly not helping the airlines this morning.

10am update - opening chop

US equities open with minor chop... with underlying upward pressure... toward the psy' level of sp'2000. First soft support is the hourly 10MA...in the 1970s. VIX remains in cooling mode, the 18s look due this morning. Commodities are getting some help via weak USD, Gold +$11, with Oil +1.1%


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

I do understand why some would feel its fine to short with things as overbought as they are... but the bigger daily/weekly cycles are increasingly favouring the bulls.

For the moment... I remain content to wait for the 2000s.

--
notable strength: FCX, +4.5%... but really.. the company is a mess.. run by fools.

How desperate must FCX be for cash if they are willing to sell assets that cost them $9bn in 2012... a mere 3yrs later.. probably for 2-3bn ?