Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are a little lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 1981. USD is cooling, -0.3% in the DXY 95.80s. Gold +$3, whilst Oil is broadly flat in the $46s.


sp'60min

Dow, monthly2

Summary

*Dow, note the 10MA... the bull maniacs should be desperate for a monthly close in the 17400s... or the grander outlook remains bearish into early 2016.
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So.. a little overnight weakness, and perhaps we'll start cooling to the 1960/50s by Thursday.

Overall though, it looks overly risky to short, as daily/weekly upward momentum is increasingly stronger with each day.

The sp'2000s still look due in the near term... and there remains threat of 2040/60 zone.. before the next rollover.

To be clear, unlike some out there, I do NOT see new index highs late this year/early 2016. 

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Corp' news...

FCX has decided to offload its oil/gas servicing section... some 3/4yrs after buying it at the top of the market.

The entire board should be fired for gross incompetence.. but no... they won't. Instead, now they'll be congratulating themselves on their new asset disposal plan.

The stock is naturally, +3.5%... but still -70% from the levels of a year ago.

FCX, monthly

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Have a good Tuesday

Core resistance

With powerful Monday gains, there is now little doubt that the market is going to make a serious play to break back above core resistance of the 200dma (2060s).. and the even more important monthly 10MA (2040s). Indeed, a monthly close back above 2050... and 'normal service' will have indeed resumed.


sp'weekly7

sp'monthly1b

Summary

Little to add.

I'm still of the view that the market will be very vulnerable to another major wave lower.

Most critical of all.. can the market see a monthly close - whether Oct, Nov. or later, above the 10MA, currently in the 2040s?

Best guess... a FAIL in late Oct/early Nov... and then lower. Of course, Yellen, Draghi, and Abe, might have something to say about that.
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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see intl' trade data.
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Waving the white flag

Having seen further price action >sp'1950, I bailed at the open, and am now back on the sidelines. I'll likely stay that way for some days. I'd consider a 'moderate' long from the sp'1950s this Wed/Thursday.. if we retrace.. otherwise I'll wait to launch another short in the sp'2040/60 zone... although that might take a fair few weeks.

A rough day.. but I live to fight another day.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes settled powerfully higher, sp +35pts @ 1987. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.3% and 2.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued broad upside.. beyond the 50dma of 2000, the 2020 high, and to the 2040/60 zone.. where critical resistance lays.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Suffice to note.. powerful Monday gains.. solidifying sp'1871 as a marginally higher low.

Regardless of any retrace to the sp'1960/50s, the market is set to battle into the sp'2000s.
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a little more later...