12pm update - the big short

Whilst US equities attempt a natural rally/bounce into the afternoon, a rather appropriate new movie trailer has appeared... 'the big short'. No doubt it will remind some that corporate corruption is indeed rife... and there is indeed a valid time to short the American.. and greater world economy.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

So.. market is battling it out.. having broken and decisively confirmed that the big bear flag from sp'1867/2020.. is complete.

Many are (somewhat) understandably calling for renewed upside from current levels.. but I would merely argue they are in denial about the importance of the initial breakdown in August.

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... as for the movie...



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VIX update from Mr T.




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*I remain on standby to initiate a number of short positions this afternoon, if price action looks okay.
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time for tea....


12.10pm.. sp'1939... minor up wave.. underway.... with a short term floor of 1932.

Best guess.. 1945/50...  before rolling over into the close.


12.16pm.. Maybe we'll max out around 1.15/30pm.... with sp'1950....

I have multiple targets locked and ready to launch.. based on the bigger weekly/monthly cycles.. both offering sub 1900' within the immediate term.

11am update - time for a late morning turn

US equities continue to slip, with the sp' in the 1930s.. along with VIX 23s. There is high threat of 3 hours of bounce/recovery into the afternoon. Broadly though, the opening break is key, and the outlook into early Oct' should now be clear.. at least to those not wearing a cheerleader uniform.


sp'15min

sp'daily5

Summary

I'd be surprised if we don't floor about now... with a good 2-3 hrs where the market will try to floor.. and claw higher.. probably into the 1945/50 zone

The hourly 10MA will be strong resistance.. and will likely be around 1950 by 2pm.

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*I am on the sidelines... I've multiple targets to short... on the next intraday bounce.
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stay tuned!
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10.58am.. provisional sign of a floor from sp'1932.    Upside target would remain 1945/50 zone by 2pm.
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11.28am... Still battling to build a short term floor...

sp'15min

A daily close <1950 looks probable.

10am update - key break

US equities open sharply lower, with what is a clear break below last Friday's low... causing all manner of technical damage. The wave from sp'1867 apparently concluded last Thursday @ 2020. The bigger weekly cycles continue to warn of much lower levels into Oct'.


sp'60min

vix'60min

sp'weekly6

Summary

*I'll be looking for the weekly 'rainbow' candle to turn red by the Friday close... if so.. that'll offer either 1820... or the low 1750/25 zone by Oct'2nd.
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I was keeping a very open mind yesterday, but I did note the Transports last night.. in that it was argubly back-testing the broken rising trend. It would seem Trans' was warning that we maxed out... and we're now headed lower.

In the case of Trans, primary target is 7000... which is indeed a long ways lower.

*I am seeking to pick up at least one short position this afternoon. For now... I want to see a floor... and then a bounce into the 1-2pm time frame.

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time for an early lunch... back soon.