Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are broadly flat, we're set to open at sp'1995. USD is a little weak, -0.2% in the DXY 95.20s. Metals are weak, Gold -$4, whilst Oil is -1.4% in the $46s. Today will be rather important :)


sp'60min

Summary

*key rising support on the hourly/daily charts will be sp'1960 this afternoon. The bulls have a clear 35pts of downside buffer.
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Well, its Fed day. It could be the most important day since rates started to get cut in late 2007.

My guess.... although it is more of a hope.. the Fed do raise rates. However, if they do... they could temper it via a very dovish statement. Anyway, lets see what the printing maniacs do.

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Overnight China action: After some earlier strength, the Shanghai comp' fell apart in the late afternoon, settling -2.1% @ 3086.
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Eyes on Oil

USO, 60min

USO is set to open in the 15.15/10 range. I'll consider picking it up again... but it would only be a micro position. I remain in 'trading light' mode until sp'2040s.. at which point I will look to short.

Have a good Thursday

Will rates be increased?

The ultimate question for tomorrow is obviously... will the US federal reserve finally raise interest rates? The debate has been increasingly fierce as some of the econ-bears tout 'rates can NEVER be raised again', vs the talk from others that 'rates will rise when its right to do so'.


sp'weekly1b

Summary

So.. whats my best guess?

Honestly... I find it hard to fathom what the financial overlords at PRINT HQ will do. The Fed has NEVER been proactive... and is always reactive. They have always been behind the curve... never leading.
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I would hope the Fed raise rates, as I've never believed low rates help the economy anyway.

If I had to guess...

I would guess the Fed DO raise rates tomorrow by 25bps.


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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the weekly jobs, housing starts, current acc', Phil Fed' survey.

The FOMC will announce @ 2pm, with a Yellen press conf' around 2.30pm

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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +17pts @ 1995 (intra high 1997). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of a brief post-FOMC sell down to the 1960s, but broadly... the 2040s still look due.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*Trans is fast approaching resistance in the 8300s. Sustained action >8400 looks highly unlikely.
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Suffice to note.. a second day higher for the market.. and we're now 128pts (6.4%) above the double floor of sp'1867.

At best, I'd guess the market can push another 2-3% higher... certainly.. no sustained action >2070.
 
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a little more later..