Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are moderately higher, sp +9pts, we're set to open around 1951. With the USD +0.1% in the DXY 96.10s, Oil is +1.2%, ahead of the EIA report. Metals are broadly flat.


sp'60min

sp'weekly2

Summary

*it will be kinda important for the bull maniacs to turn the weekly candle back to blue.. as it was earlier yesterday.

Frankly, I really want to see a weekly close at least in the sp'1950s.. anything under that would be a problem.
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Equity futures were initially weak overnight, equiv' to -10pts @ 1930... very close to rising trend... from last weeks low of 1911.
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Overnight Asia action...

Japan: -2.1% @ 18299... opening weak, with a slight recovery into the close. Considering the previous days hyper gains of 7.7%... it was an understandable retrace day.

China: -1.4% @ 3197. A broadly weak day.. and the PBOC seemed absent. On the positive side, the Shanghai comp' managed another daily close above the 3K threshold. Upside target remains the 3500/600s.... before resuming lower.

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Have a good Thursday
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7.35am  sp +4pts @ 1946. Not exactly inspiring, but we've a long day ahead.

DIS +0.4% in the $102.30s. A daily close in the 103s would be something.
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8.42am.. sp -10pts... 1932... and this is starting to become a problem.

Any sustained trading <1925 will break soft rising support.... opening up last weeks 1911 low.

Best guess... we go up.. but once again.. it is a borderline situation.
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9.16am.. sp -4pts.. 1938...

*Tepper was a good guest on CNBC just earlier.. seems he would be a heavy buyer in the 1700s.
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9.39am.. minor weak chop....  core rising support is at 1925.

All things considered, we should be battling upward... no later than 11am. 


9.47am.. black-fail candle on the VIX.... equity bears beware!


.. time for an early lunch

WTIC Oil - a brief update

Whilst the US equity market closed significantly lower, there was also notable weakness in WTIC Oil, which settled -3.5% in the $44s. However, price structure remains a clear bull flag, and offers a return to the $50 threshold in FOMC week.


*I will use USO to highlight Oil.. as that is how I usually trade Oil. Yes, I'm well aware of the long term decay problems inherent in USO, and any consideration of nominal prices further back than six months is not a good idea.
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USO, daily

USO, weekly2

Summary

Price structure on the daily chart is a bull flag, with an initial target that would equate to WTIC back around the $50 threshold.

There is a clear price gap in USO in the $18s.. equating to WTIC $55 or so.. but that will not be easy... unless the USD can cool to the low DXY 90s.

re: weekly chart: despite the Wed' net daily decline, the weekly candle remains blue, and with 3 blue candles, there is the obvious threat of renewed upside into next week.

*the EIA oil report is due Thursday at 11am, and will no doubt have a major effect on how Oil trades for the rest of the week. Oil bulls really need to see a net draw down of at least 1-2 million barrels.
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Update from Mr C.


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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the weekly jobs, import/export prices, wholesale trade, and the latest EIA oil report.
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Two holes dug

Today was not the easiest of days, although there was at least some sunshine in the afternoon, and for a few hours it was warm.

As I noted at the start of the day, I was not particularly in the mood to hit any buttons, but with Oil cooling in early morning, I decided to pick that up. Naturally, it then slowly melted into the afternoon.

Then there was Disney, which saw an early high of $104.99, and then cooled into the $102s in the afternoon. I picked up DIS, but that stock then fell another dollar into the close.

So, I've managed to dig two moderately sized trading holes for myself, and now I'm wondering if I'll be holding one or both positions across the weekend. Its not a great thought, but I think at least my entry levels are reasonable.

*thanks for the emails/messages today... I do appreciate it, especially from some of you new people!

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed significantly weak, sp -27pts @ 1942 (intra high 1988). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.7% and -1.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside... at least to the sp'2000/2010 zone.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Little to add.

Despite sig' net daily declines - with a powerful 2.5% reversal from sp'1988 to 1937, the near term outlook into FOMC week remains bullish.

Trend support will be around sp'1925 at the Thursday open. By the Friday close.. the market needs to be trading above 1940.

First key downside target for the doomer bears is the Friday low of 1911. Unless that is taken out.. and closed under, it remains a series of higher lows.

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a little more later...