Thursday, 3 September 2015

12pm update - just another little down wave

US equities are cooling from a morning high of sp'1975. Considering the 15/60min cycles.. fractionally red indexes are possible... leading into the Friday jobs data. No doubt some bulls are getting unsettled, but the broader upward trend into next week remains intact.


sp'15min



Summary

Without getting lost in the minor noise.. its likely just another little down wave.. even if we see the sp' turn negative this afternoon.

--
I have eyes on AAPL.. along with many other things...

15min


The $110.25/109.75s would be tempting for another long-entry.. although ahead of the long weekend, I'm not especially inclined.
-

VIX update from Mr R.


--
Of course, the far more important news today remains........


--
time for tea

11am update - cruising higher

After a touch of early weakness, the broader trend from the Tuesday low of sp'1903 continues. There is natural hourly upper bollinger band resistance in the 1980/85 zone. A daily close >1990 will be more likely after the 3 day break. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7


sp'60min


Summary

Little to add.

What should be clear.. regardless of any sporadic down waves... this is no market to be short right now.

--
AAPL is struggling relative to the main market.

15min


... although nowhere near as bad as NFLX.. there are real problems in that stock this week.


Note the flash-print to the $85 gap zone... with an even lower target for next equity down wave.

-
stay tuned!


11.01am
special note... at the current rate of increase, the daily MACD cycle for the sp'500 will turn positive late tomorrow/early Tuesday.

At that point, there is a viable 3-5 days of 'likely upside'... if with the occasional moderate down day. It is why I am looking to hold off on market shorts until FOMC week itself.

I see no hurry right now... not least with a long weekend ahead.
-


11.16am.. Market due a down wave into 2pm... from sp'1975.

AAPL remains especially weak... the 110s look viable.    I shall consider that.
-


11.30am..  weakness...

sp'15min


Clearly, a break under the 1903 low would be a critical warning, but I really don't see that as viable. 
-

11.41am.. Just another natural micro down wave.... and no doubt.. some of the bulls are getting a little unsettled.

NFLX -3.2% @ $102.... not pretty

10am update - opening gains

US equities open moderately higher, with the sp +15pts @ 1964. VIX continues to cool, -5% in the 24.70s. Regardless of any sporadic micro down waves, the broader trend looks bullish beyond the 3 day holiday weekend.. and probably into FOMC week.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

So... the second day higher...  with VIX well on the way to the low 20s.

All things considered... we're another day closer to a viable market crash... and I don't use the C word lightly.

Anyway.. first things first... we've an FOMC to get through.. in TWO weeks time.

--
*I EXITED AAPL-long from $112.55... minor gain... but it does make for a third consecutive AAPL trade (1 short, 2 long).. all net positive :)


I would consider picking up again in  the 111.25/110s.. but not until 2pm.

If it keeps rising... I'll just sit back.. and watch.
--


10.06am.. notable weakness. NFLX -4.3% @ $100... a loss of 100 would be a real problem.