Whilst equities remain stuck in the sp'2120s - with VIX 12s, the real action remains in the precious metals market. Gold -$27, with Silver -0.6%. The miner ETF of GDX continues to implode, -7.9% in the $14.20s.. the 12/10s look due.
Lets take a look at Gold and the miners.. but on the bigger monthly cycles...
GLD, monthly'2
GDX, monthly
Summary
The horror is indeed clear.. especially seen in the related mining stocks, most of which are -85/90% since 2011.
If you assume Gold $1000... do the math.... it will knock another 25% or so off most miners.
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Aside from the mining stocks...notable weakness: DISCA -3.9%
CHK -2.4%, with Nat' gas -2.9%
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strength: AAPL +1.8% in the $131s., FB +2%.. as the momo chasers are seeking the big $100 threshold.
Whilst US equities open with some moderate chop, the more notable action is in precious metals. Gold has decisively taken out the Nov' 2014 low, currently -$24, with Silver -0.6%. The related miners are naturally getting destroyed, with the miner ETF of GDX -5.7%... well below the crash low of Oct'2008.
GLD, daily
GDX,daily
Summary
*it is too hard to resist to begin the day with a little bash against the gold bugs, who remain the most twisted group of investors (and I use the term loosely).
Typically, the gold bug has been buying ALL the way down from the $1900s.. and has a portfolio consisting almost entirely of mining stocks. Most of the latter have lost 85/90% since the 2011 high.
No doubt.. some of the bugs will be buying today... all I shall say is... good luck with that.
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As for equities... market remains looking tired... we're due a retrace. A moderate net daily decline would seem reasonable to target.. and that would set up increasing weakness across tomorrow and Wednesday.
VIX'daily3
Prime exit zone remains the 15/16s, but certainly.. the big 20 threshold looks out of range in the near term.
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Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 2128. USD continues to battle higher, +0.1% at DXY 98.00. Metals have seen an overnight collapse, with Gold hitting a new cycle low of $1086, the lowest level since March 2010. Oil is a little weak, -0.2%.
sp'60min
Gold, monthly'2, with fibs
Summary
*I could drone on about the precious metals for pages and pages... suffice to say... original targets remain on track. Gold to $1000.. maybe 900/875, as a capitulation low.. along with Silver 12/10. Such levels have dire implications for the related mining stocks.
Pre-market, miner ETF of GDX -3%.. in the $14.90s... target is 12/10... within a few months.
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As for equities, we now have two downside gaps. Clearly, the sp'2080 gap is a long way down.. and we might simply not get down that low for another month or two.
The bigger weekly cycle will have resistance around 2140/45 from today onward, given another month.... a multi-month peak around 2170/90 zone looks viable.
Best guess.. a retrace this week.. before resuming higher.
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*I remain long VIX (from 12.92).. seeking the 15/16s. That does not seem overly bold a target, considering the broader weekly chart which remains warning of real trouble in the late summer.
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Update from Mr C...
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Fitts
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Overnight China action: volatility continues to cool, with Monday seeing some relatively moderate chop, settling +0.9% @ 3992. Regardless of any weakness this week, a move to around 4300/500 seems due before the next down wave.
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notable early movers.. MS, +3.5% on better than expected earnings. Like other financials, MS is no doubt hoping to dramatically increase margins if the fed will finally start to raise rates before year end.
EBAY -58% @ $27... but then... its officially split from Paypal (PYPL) today!
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