Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are broadly flat, sp +1pt, we're set to open around the 2100 threshold. USD is back in cooling mode, -0.2% in the DXY 96.60s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$4, with Silver -1.1%. Oil is similarly weak, -1.0% in the $51s.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly6

Summary

*with a bearish outlook from mid Aug-early Oct', I will be highlighting weekly'6 across the next few months.
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Awaiting key retail sales data  at 8.30am

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notable strength

Micron (MU), +12%... after a China takeover bid.

JPM +0.7%, after better than expected Q2 earnings.. although the financials are still struggling to increase revenue. They need higher int' rates!
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Update from Mr C.


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Overnight China action: volatility continues to cool... with a day of relatively minor chop, briefly breaking the 4K threshold, but settling -1.2% @ 3924. Upside target remains 4300/500.. before another wave down to around 3200/000.
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Have a good Tuesday


8.31am. Retail sales -0.3%.... vs previous 1.2%... its a pretty lousy number. 


9.00am... Equity futures cooling a little.. sp -2pts... 2097....  risk remains 2085/80....  but even that looks difficult. 

USD weakening... -0.5% in the DXY 96.30s.

Eyes on the VIX

With equities closing higher for a second consecutive day, the VIX was naturally whacked lower. Based on many previous cycles, 2-3 weeks of a subdued VIX appear likely. By mid August though, there will be a very high threat of a renewed.. and particularly powerful surge in market volatility.


VIX'weekly

VIX'monthly

Summary

*note the upper bollinger on the giant monthly cycle - currently around the key 20 threshold.. where the VIX got stuck last Thursday.
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Suffice to say, I am expecting the VIX to see some sustained action in the 20s in the late summer/early Autumn. Whether we briefly break into the 30s... difficult to say.

For now.. I am content to watch VIX.. but will likely pick up some Sept/Oct option calls in early August.

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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see retail sales, import/export prices, and business inventories.

*fed official George will speak.. but that is not until after the close.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +22pts @ 2099. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 1.1%. Near term outlook offers moderate threat of downside to 2085/80... but regardless of any Tues/Wed weakness, the broader trend looks bullish into early August.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

Suffice to say... market is battling upward from the double floor of sp'2044...  new historic highs (in some.. but not all indexes) look due into early August.

From there.. things should (in theory) get real interesting.
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a little more later...